Física de la Atmósfera, Radiación Solar y Astropartículas, Instituto de Física Rosario (CONICET - Universidad Nacional de Rosario), Rosario, Argentina.
Photochem Photobiol Sci. 2018 Dec 5;17(12):1913-1917. doi: 10.1039/c7pp00405b.
Climate change is affecting both the environment and human behaviour. One significant impact is related to health, as detailed in the IPCC 2014 report. In the present work, and as a contribution to this commemorative special issue to Prof. Dr Jan van der Leun, we present the results of the squamous (SCC) and basal-cell carcinoma (BCC) incidence change in relation to the ambient temperature increase. This increase is produced by global warming, mainly induced by anthropogenic atmospheric emissions of greenhouse gases. We have broadened a previous study conducted by van der Leun et al. (Photochem. Photobiol. Sci., 2008, 7, 730-733), by analysing the effective carcinogenicity of UV dose, for the period 2000-2200 and four climate change scenarios (called RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5). The corresponding percentage increases of the incidence of SCC for 2100 are 5.8, 10.4, 13.8 and 21.4%, and for 2200 they are 4.3, 12.1, 19.0 and 40.5%. In a similar way, the percentage increases of the incidence of BCC for 2100 are 2.8, 4.9, 6.5 and 9.9% and for 2200 they are 2.0, 5.8, 8.9 and 18.2%. We report the SCC and BCC percentage effective incidence results as a function of time, for the whole 21st century and we extended the analysis to the 22nd century, since people possibly affected (like the Z and T generations, born at the beginning of this century) will have a life expectancy extending up to the final decades of the present century and even to the first ones of the next century.
气候变化正在影响环境和人类行为。正如 IPCC 2014 报告所详细说明的那样，一个重要影响与健康有关。在本工作中，作为对 Jan van der Leun 教授纪念特刊的贡献，我们报告了与环境温度升高相关的鳞状细胞癌 (SCC) 和基底细胞癌 (BCC) 发病率变化的结果。这种增加是由全球变暖引起的，主要是由人为温室气体大气排放引起的。我们扩展了 van der Leun 等人之前的研究（Photochem. Photobiol. Sci.，2008 年，7，730-733），分析了 2000-2200 年期间和四个气候变化情景（称为 RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP6.0 和 RCP8.5）下紫外线剂量的有效致癌性。到 2100 年，SCC 发病率的相应百分比增加分别为 5.8%、10.4%、13.8%和 21.4%，到 2200 年，它们分别为 4.3%、12.1%、19.0%和 40.5%。类似地，到 2100 年，BCC 发病率的百分比增加分别为 2.8%、4.9%、6.5%和 9.9%，到 2200 年，它们分别为 2.0%、5.8%、8.9%和 18.2%。我们报告了 SCC 和 BCC 百分比有效发病率作为时间函数的结果，涵盖整个 21 世纪，并将分析扩展到 22 世纪，因为可能受到影响的人（如本世纪初出生的 Z 和 T 世代）的预期寿命将延长到本世纪末，甚至延长到下世纪的前几十年。
