Risk score system for the prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with type 2 diabetes: Taiwan Diabetes Study.

This study aims to develop a risk score system for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with type 2 diabetes using the Taiwan National Diabetes Care Management Program database. This retrospective cohort study included 31,723 Chinese patients who had type 2 diabetes, aged 30-84 years. Participants were randomly grouped into derivation and validation sets in 2:1 ratio. Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to identify the risk factors of HCC in the derivation set. Discrimination ability of the model was assessed by means of a receiver operating characteristic curve and performance was expressed as the c statistic, assessed internally on validation data sets. The average follow-up was 8.33 years with 748 HCC incident cases in the derivation set. The final HCC risk score system included age (-2 to 8 points), gender (0-2 points), smoking (0-2 points), variation in hemoglobin A1c (0-1 point), serum glutamic-pyruvic transaminase (0-6 points), liver cirrhosis (9 points), hepatitis B (4 points), hepatitis C (3 points), antidiabetes medications (0-3 points), and antihyperlipidemia medications and total/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio (-4 to 2 points). The HCC risk score was the sum of these individual scores (range -6 to 40). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for 3-, 5-, and 10-year HCC risks was 0.81, 0.80, and 0.77 for the derivation set, respectively. This HCC risk score system has good prediction accuracy and discriminatory ability, and serves a simple tool for HCC risk prediction.