School of Water Conservancy & Civil Engineering, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, Heilongjiang 150030, China; Key Laboratory of Effective Utilization of Agricultural Water Resources, Ministry of Agriculture, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, Heilongjiang 150030, China.
School of Water Conservancy & Civil Engineering, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, Heilongjiang 150030, China; Key Laboratory of Effective Utilization of Agricultural Water Resources, Ministry of Agriculture, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, Heilongjiang 150030, China; Heilongjiagn Province Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Water Conservancy Engineering in Cold Region, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, Heilongjiang 150030, China.
Sci Total Environ. 2019 Feb 15;651(Pt 1):1416-1434. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.09.291. Epub 2018 Sep 24.
Agriculture is the largest user of freshwater which is essential for food production. Water, energy and food are closely intertwined, as both water and energy are critical inputs for food production. Increasing pressure from shortages of resources and increasing demand for food reinforce the need for optimal management of the water, energy, and food nexus. Uncertainties caused by natural conditions and human activities complicate the optimal allocation. An integrated model, called AWEFSM, was developed for the sustainable management of limited water-energy-food resource in an agricultural system by incorporating multi-objective programming, nonlinear programming, and intuitionistic fuzzy numbers into a general framework. The AWEFSM model is capable of identifying the tradeoffs of water, energy and land resources among various subareas and crops, generating high-profile and environment-friendly strategies and policies, and addressing parameter uncertainties associated with the fluctuations of natural resources and variation of socioeconomic activities. The AWEFSM model was solved, considering nonlinear membership and non-membership functions with both optimistic and pessimistic views of decision makers, and was demonstrated for a real-world case study in northwest China. The interrelationships and trade-offs among system components, including water supply-demand, energy supply-demand, land demand, food production, as well as water and energy footprints, were quantitatively analyzed under different scenarios. The AWEFSM model is applicable for similar regions dominated by agriculture with limited resource supplies to determine water-energy-food strategies under uncertainty.
农业是淡水的最大使用者，而淡水是粮食生产所必需的。水、能源和粮食密切相关，因为水和能源都是粮食生产的关键投入。资源短缺和粮食需求不断增加的压力加剧了对水、能源和粮食关系进行最佳管理的必要性。自然条件和人类活动带来的不确定性使优化配置变得复杂。通过将多目标规划、非线性规划和直觉模糊数纳入一个通用框架，开发了一种名为 AWEFSM 的综合模型，用于在农业系统中实现有限的水-能源-粮食资源的可持续管理。AWEFSM 模型能够识别各个子区域和作物之间的水、能源和土地资源的权衡，生成高影响力和环境友好型的战略和政策，并解决与自然资源波动和社会经济活动变化相关的参数不确定性。考虑到决策者的乐观和悲观观点，AWEFSM 模型解决了具有非线性隶属度和非隶属度函数的问题，并在中国西北地区的一个实际案例中进行了演示。在不同情景下，对系统组成部分之间的相互关系和权衡进行了定量分析，包括供水-需水、能源供应-需求、土地需求、粮食生产以及水和能源足迹。AWEFSM 模型适用于以农业为主导、资源供应有限的类似地区，用于在不确定条件下确定水-能源-粮食战略。
