Yue Wencong, Su Meirong, Cai Yanpeng, Rong Qiangqiang, Xu Chao, Hu Yuanchao, Li Jiajia, Yu Shujie, Chen Donghan, Liu Zhongqi, Tan Zhenkun, Yang Zhifeng
Environmental Monitoring Center, Ecology and Environment Bureau of Haidian District of Beijing Municipality, Beijing 100089, China.
Research Center for Eco-Environmental Engineering, Dongguan University of Technology, Dongguan 523808, China.
iScience. 2025 Jun 9;28(7):112859. doi: 10.1016/j.isci.2025.112859. eCollection 2025 Jul 18.
Food security depends on food production exceeding consumption, which are influenced, respectively, by climate change and socio-economic development. We adopted a hybrid approach for predicting features of future food security in China. Specifically, complex interactions in food security were examined using copula-based Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation. Crop yields per unit area were simulated with a denitrification-decomposition (DNDC) model under four climate-change scenarios. A high shortage risk for soybean and lower shortage risks for maize and wheat were predicted. Compared with the extent of food security in China under other dietary patterns, the performance advantage of the Chinese dietary pattern was identified, which could mitigate crop shortage risks. The shortage risk of core crops would not be influenced greatly under the different dietary patterns. In the planning years 2025 and 2030, the shortage risks for soybean and rice would be pronounced (i.e., more than 50%), whereas those for maize and wheat would not be prominent.
粮食安全取决于粮食产量超过消费量，而这两者分别受到气候变化和社会经济发展的影响。我们采用了一种混合方法来预测中国未来粮食安全的特征。具体而言，利用基于copula的马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗模拟来研究粮食安全中的复杂相互作用。在四种气候变化情景下，使用反硝化-分解（DNDC）模型模拟单位面积作物产量。预测大豆短缺风险高，玉米和小麦短缺风险低。与中国其他饮食模式下的粮食安全程度相比，确定了中国饮食模式的性能优势，这可以减轻作物短缺风险。不同饮食模式下核心作物的短缺风险不会受到很大影响。在规划年份2025年和2030年，大豆和水稻的短缺风险将很明显（即超过50%），而玉米和小麦的短缺风险则不突出。
