Malta Deborah Carvalho, Duncan Bruce Bartholow, Barros Marilisa Berti de Azevedo, Katikireddi Srinivasa Vittal, Souza Fatima Marinho de, Silva Alanna Gomes da, Machado Daiane Borges, Barreto Mauricio Lima
Programa de Pós- Graduação. Escola de Enfermagem, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais. Av. Alfredo Balena 190/5º, Santa Efigênia. 30130-100 Belo Horizonte MG Brasil.
Programa de Pós-Graduação em Epidemiologia, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul. Porto Alegre RS Brasil.
Cien Saude Colet. 2018 Oct;23(10):3115-3122. doi: 10.1590/1413-812320182310.25222018.
Given the Constitutional Amendment 95 and the economic crisis, we discussed the possible effects of austerity measures on the achievement of the goals established for the control of chronic noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) in the country. The trends of NCDs and risk factors were analyzed, according to data from epidemiological surveys and mortality data from the Global Burden of Disease study. The resultsindicate a trend of stability in mortality rates by NCD in 2015 and 2016. Brazilians with low schooling, in general, have a higher prevalence of risk factors and a lower prevalence of protective factors. In the 2015-2017 period, previously favorable trends reversed for indicators such as fruit and vegetable consumption and physical activity, tobacco trends stabilized, and alcohol intake increased. In conclusion, should these trends be maintained, it is unlikely that Brazil will achieve the goals previously agreed upon with the World Health Organization and the United Nations to curb NCDs and their risk factors.
鉴于宪法修正案95以及经济危机,我们讨论了紧缩措施对该国控制慢性非传染性疾病(NCDs)既定目标实现的可能影响。根据流行病学调查数据和全球疾病负担研究的死亡率数据,分析了非传染性疾病和风险因素的趋势。结果表明,2015年和2016年非传染性疾病死亡率呈稳定趋势。一般来说,受教育程度低的巴西人风险因素患病率较高,保护因素患病率较低。在2015 - 2017年期间,水果和蔬菜消费以及身体活动等指标此前的有利趋势发生逆转,烟草趋势稳定,酒精摄入量增加。总之,如果这些趋势持续下去,巴西不太可能实现此前与世界卫生组织和联合国商定的控制非传染性疾病及其风险因素的目标。