School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, PR China; Guangdong Key Laboratory for Urbanization and Geo-simulation, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, PR China.
School of Geographic Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, PR China; Key Lab of Geographic Information Science (Ministry of Education), East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, PR China.
Sci Total Environ. 2019 Feb 20;652:765-779. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.10.283. Epub 2018 Oct 22.
Land change, especially urban land expansion, is increasingly triggered by remote demands for goods and services rather than by purely local drivers, exerting pressure on ecosystem services beyond local boundaries. This effect has been termed as 'tele-connections'. China has become the world's second largest economy. Understanding the tele-connections between China's future urban growth and its impacts on ecosystem services is essential to reconcile the conflict between socioeconomic developments and ecological protection. To this end, we propose to integrate an urban growth simulation model with the multi-region input-output (MRIO) model, thereby illustrating how urban land consumption in one region can cause ecosystem services' degradation in another. We explore the decline in ecosystem services due to urban land tele-connections under five shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios. The results yield the direct loss of ecosystem services by 1.14-5.42% in food production, 0.06-0.44% in carbon sequestration, 0.09-0.59% in soil retention, 0.05-0.29% in sandstorm prevention, 0.12-0.80% in water retention and 0.19-1.04% in habitat provision. Uneven ecological consequences caused by domestic urban land displacement are witnessed not only in China's peripheral regions but also in developed regions. Shanghai, as the largest city in China, is expected to exert great impacts in terms of the quantity of ecosystem services decline and its spatial extent as well. Overall, the presented scenario simulations can support the establishment of effective compensation strategies toward balancing the responsibility and rights of stakeholders associated with ecological services protection.
土地变化，尤其是城市土地扩张，越来越多地受到远程商品和服务需求的驱动，而不是纯粹的本地驱动，从而对超出本地边界的生态系统服务施加压力。这种效应被称为“远程联系”。中国已成为世界第二大经济体。了解中国未来城市增长与生态系统服务之间的远程联系，对于协调社会经济发展与生态保护之间的冲突至关重要。为此，我们建议将城市增长模拟模型与多区域投入产出（MRIO）模型相结合，从而说明一个地区的城市土地消耗如何导致另一个地区的生态系统服务退化。我们探讨了在五种共享社会经济途径（SSP）情景下，由于城市土地远程联系而导致的生态系统服务下降。结果表明，在食物生产方面，生态系统服务的直接损失为 1.14-5.42%；在碳封存方面，损失为 0.06-0.44%；在土壤保持方面，损失为 0.09-0.59%；在防沙尘暴方面，损失为 0.05-0.29%；在蓄水方面，损失为 0.12-0.80%；在生境提供方面，损失为 0.19-1.04%。不仅在中国的边缘地区，而且在发达地区，国内城市土地转移造成的生态后果也不均衡。作为中国最大的城市，上海预计将在生态系统服务下降的数量和空间范围方面产生重大影响。总体而言，所提出的情景模拟可以支持建立有效的补偿策略，以平衡与生态系统服务保护相关的利益相关者的责任和权利。
