Department of Economics, Pomona College, Claremont, California.
Big Data. 2018 Dec;6(4):262-270. doi: 10.1089/big.2018.0036. Epub 2018 Nov 14.
Football scores are an imperfect measure of a team's ability, and consequently exaggerate differences in abilities. Those teams that perform the best and the worst are not really so far from average in their ability; thus their future performances regress to the mean. Betting data indicate that gamblers do not fully account for this regression.
足球比分是衡量一支球队能力的不完美指标，因此夸大了球队之间能力的差异。那些表现最好和最差的球队在能力上与平均水平并没有真正相差那么远；因此，他们未来的表现会回归到平均水平。博彩数据表明，赌徒并没有充分考虑到这种回归。
