Wunderlich Fabian, Memmert Daniel
a Institute of Cognitive and Team/Racket Sport Research , German Sport University Cologne , Cologne , Germany.
J Sports Sci. 2016 Dec;34(24):2176-2184. doi: 10.1080/02640414.2016.1218040. Epub 2016 Aug 11.
The present study aims to investigate the ability of a new framework enabling to derive more detailed model-based predictions from ranking systems. These were compared to predictions from the bet market including data from the World Cups 2006, 2010, and 2014. The results revealed that the FIFA World Ranking has essentially improved its predictive qualities compared to the bet market since the mode of calculation was changed in 2006. While both predictors were useful to obtain accurate predictions in general, the world ranking was able to outperform the bet market significantly for the World Cup 2014 and when the data from the World Cups 2010 and 2014 were pooled. Our new framework can be extended in future research to more detailed prediction tasks (i.e., predicting the final scores of a match or the tournament progress of a team).
本研究旨在调查一种新框架的能力，该框架能够从排名系统中得出更详细的基于模型的预测。将这些预测与博彩市场的预测进行比较，博彩市场的数据包括2006年、2010年和2014年世界杯的数据。结果显示，自2006年计算方式改变以来，国际足联世界排名与博彩市场相比，其预测质量有了实质性提高。虽然总体而言，两种预测指标都有助于获得准确的预测，但在2014年世界杯以及将2010年和2014年世界杯的数据汇总时，世界排名能够显著优于博彩市场。我们的新框架在未来研究中可以扩展到更详细的预测任务（即预测比赛的最终比分或球队的赛事进展）。
