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人口统计学随机性驱动野生动物的流行病学模式,对疾病和种群管理具有重要意义。

Demographic stochasticity drives epidemiological patterns in wildlife with implications for diseases and population management.

机构信息

Université de Lyon, Université Lyon 1, UMR CNRS 5558 Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Evolutive, Villeurbanne, France.

Office National de la Chasse et de la Faune Sauvage, Unité Ongulés Sauvages, 5 allée de Bethléem - ZI Mayencin, 38610, Gières, France.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2018 Nov 15;8(1):16846. doi: 10.1038/s41598-018-34623-0.

Abstract

Infectious diseases raise many concerns for wildlife and new insights must be gained to manage infected populations. Wild ungulates provide opportunities to gain such insights as they host many pathogens. Using modelling and data collected from an intensively monitored population of Pyrenean chamois, we investigated the role of stochastic processes in governing epidemiological patterns of pestivirus spread in both protected and hunted populations. We showed that demographic stochasticity led to three epidemiological outcomes: early infection fade-out, epidemic outbreaks with population collapse, either followed by virus extinction or by endemic situations. Without re-introduction, the virus faded out in >50% of replications within 4 years and did not persist >20 years. Test-and-cull of infected animals and vaccination had limited effects relative to the efforts devoted, especially in hunted populations in which only quota reduction somewhat improve population recovery. Success of these strategies also relied on the maintenance of a high level of surveillance of hunter-harvested animals. Our findings suggested that, while surveillance and maintenance of population levels at intermediate densities to avoid large epidemics are useful at any time, a 'do nothing' approach during epidemics could be the 'least bad' management strategy in populations of ungulates species facing pestivirus infection.

摘要

传染病给野生动物带来了许多关注,为了管理受感染的种群,必须获得新的见解。野生有蹄类动物为我们提供了获得这些见解的机会,因为它们携带许多病原体。本研究使用模型和从密集监测的比利牛斯野山羊种群中收集的数据,研究了随机过程在控制传染病在受保护和狩猎种群中的传播模式中的作用。结果表明,种群动态随机性导致了三种流行病学结果:早期感染消退、疫情暴发导致种群崩溃,随后病毒要么灭绝,要么成为地方性疾病。如果没有重新引入,病毒在 4 年内超过 50%的复制中消失,并且不会持续超过 20 年。与投入的努力相比,感染动物的检测和扑杀以及疫苗接种的效果有限,尤其是在狩猎种群中,只有减少配额才能在一定程度上促进种群恢复。这些策略的成功还依赖于对猎人捕获的动物进行持续的高水准监测。研究结果表明,虽然在任何时候,监测和维持中等密度的种群水平以避免大规模疫情都是有用的,但在疫情期间采取“不作为”的方法可能是受传染病感染的有蹄类动物种群的“次优”管理策略。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5ed9/6237989/736655316318/41598_2018_34623_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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