气候变化对加拿大半干旱和湿润地区作物产量、土壤水分平衡和硝酸盐淋失的影响。
Climate change impacts on crop yield, soil water balance and nitrate leaching in the semiarid and humid regions of Canada.
机构信息
Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS), Beijing, China.
Harrow Research and Development Centre, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Harrow, ON, Canada.
出版信息
PLoS One. 2018 Nov 16;13(11):e0207370. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0207370. eCollection 2018.
The impact of climate change on agricultural systems is a major concern as it can have a significant effect on the world food supply. The objective of this study was to evaluate climate change impacts on crop production and nitrate leaching in two distinct climatic zones in Canada. Spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) was selected for the semiarid regions of Western Canada (Swift Current, SK) and maize (Zea mays L.) was chosen for the more humid regions of central Canada (Woodslee, ON). Climate scenarios were based upon simulations from a Canadian Regional Climate Model (CanRCM4) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and crop simulations were conducted using the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) model. Compared to the baseline climate scenario, wheat yields increased by 8, 8, 11, 15%, whereas maize yields decreased by 15, 25, 22, 41% under RCP4.5 2050s (2041-2070), RCP4.5 2080s (2071-2100), RCP8.5 2050s and RCP8.5 2080s scenarios, respectively. Annual nitrate leaching increased by 19, 57, 73, 129% at Swift Current and by 84, 117, 208, 317% at Woodslee under the four scenarios, respectively. Adaptation measures suggested that fertilizer N rate for spring wheat should be increased to 80-100 kg N ha-1 to obtain optimal yields although this will result in an additional risk of 5-8 kg N ha-1 nitrate leaching at Swift Current. The fertilizer N rate of 150 kg N ha-1 was found to be suitable for high maize yields at Woodslee. New wheat and maize cultivars with long growing seasons would enable crop growth to match the phenological stage and hence maintain high crop yields to adapt to increased temperatures in the future.
气候变化对农业系统的影响是一个主要关注点，因为它会对世界粮食供应产生重大影响。本研究的目的是评估气候变化对加拿大两个不同气候区作物生产和硝酸盐淋失的影响。春小麦（Triticum aestivum L.）被选用于加拿大西部的半干旱地区（斯威夫特卡伦特，SK），而玉米（Zea mays L.）则被选用于加拿大中部较湿润地区（伍兹利，ON）。气候情景基于加拿大区域气候模型（CanRCM4）的模拟，采用两种代表性浓度途径（RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5），并使用决策支持系统农业技术转让模型（DSSAT）进行作物模拟。与基准气候情景相比，在 RCP4.5 2050 年代（2041-2070 年）、RCP4.5 2080 年代（2071-2100 年）、RCP8.5 2050 年代和 RCP8.5 2080 年代情景下，春小麦的产量分别增加了 8%、8%、11%和 15%，而玉米的产量则分别减少了 15%、25%、22%和 41%。在斯威夫特卡伦特，硝酸盐淋失量分别增加了 19%、57%、73%和 129%，而在伍兹利，硝酸盐淋失量分别增加了 84%、117%、208%和 317%。四个情景下硝酸盐淋失量的增加。建议将春小麦的氮肥用量增加到 80-100kgNha-1，以获得最佳产量，尽管这将导致斯威夫特卡伦特的硝酸盐淋失量增加 5-8kgNha-1。在伍兹利，发现 150kgNha-1 的氮肥用量适合玉米的高产量。具有较长生长季节的新小麦和玉米品种可以使作物生长与物候期相匹配，从而保持高作物产量，以适应未来温度的升高。
Zotero 插件