Department of Urban Engineering, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada.
Inj Prev. 2019 Dec;25(6):535-539. doi: 10.1136/injuryprev-2018-042954. Epub 2018 Nov 17.
To quantitatively evaluate the effect of seawalls on tsunami evacuation departure.
A mixed-effect Cox proportional-hazards regression model was applied to evacuation behavioural data obtained from a probability survey of survivors of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami in Iwate and Miyagi prefectures.
Presence of a seawall higher than the forecast tsunami height at any given time reduces the likelihood of prompt evacuation by 30%. Findings suggest the existence of a false sense of security among residents deriving from the presence of seawalls.
Prompt evacuation is a key factor affecting survival. The effect of seawalls on evacuation decisions is an important policy consideration. More work is needed in disaster preparedness education and in the way tsunami warnings are given, taking into consideration the risk of forecast error. Priority should be given to promoting prompt evacuation and educating residents as to the uncertainty of tsunami forecasting, to ensure that residents do not ignore evacuation warnings due to false impressions of the safety provided by seawalls.
定量评估海堤对海啸疏散撤离的影响。
采用混合效应 Cox 比例风险回归模型，对岩手县和宫城县 2011 年东日本大地震和海啸幸存者的概率调查中获得的疏散行为数据进行分析。
在任何给定时间，存在高于预测海啸高度的海堤会降低及时疏散的可能性，降低幅度为 30%。研究结果表明，海堤的存在会给居民带来一种虚假的安全感。
及时疏散是影响生存的关键因素。海堤对疏散决策的影响是一个重要的政策考虑因素。在灾害准备教育和海啸预警方式方面，需要做更多的工作，同时考虑到预测错误的风险。应优先考虑促进及时疏散，并教育居民海啸预测的不确定性，以确保居民不会因对海堤提供的安全的错误印象而忽视疏散警报。
