Department of Environmental Science, Faculty of Natural Resources and Environment, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.
Department of Forestry, Faculty of Natural Resources and Environment, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.
Environ Monit Assess. 2018 Nov 19;190(12):729. doi: 10.1007/s10661-018-7078-4.
The ecotourism industry is one of the largest industries and has an important role in the economic social and cultural development of societies, especially in developing countries. Policymaking and planning procedures in this industry require the application of the methods that can appropriately model mutual and complex interactions and contacts. System dynamics is an accurate modeling method to simulate complex systems in a structured way and to design more effective policies by using these complex systems. In this study, the interactions and dynamics of the main components of ecotourism (effective variables) in the Taleghan area are modeled using system dynamics. To formulate and model simulations in the period between 2005 and 2015 was considered, and then extending the period of investigation, the model simulation was performed till the year 2025. Among the most important results of this study is the effect of the environment on the demand for ecotourism. Environmental degradation and the degradation of the quality of the environment lead to a reduced demand for ecotourism. This study predicts the future of ecotourism by this dynamic and designs a group of policies for the sustainable and comprehensive development of ecotourism on the basis of the behavior of the model variables in order to prevent the degradation of environment and simultaneously ensure that ecotourism demand is not negatively affected. Finally, the best policy "depending construction to the state of the area environment" was selected among them.
生态旅游产业是规模最大的产业之一，在社会的经济、社会和文化发展中扮演着重要角色，尤其是在发展中国家。该产业的决策和规划程序需要应用能够适当模拟相互复杂的互动和联系的方法。系统动力学是一种精确的建模方法，可以以结构化的方式模拟复杂系统，并通过利用这些复杂系统来设计更有效的政策。在这项研究中，使用系统动力学对塔勒甘地区生态旅游的主要组成部分（有效变量）的相互作用和动态进行建模。考虑到在 2005 年至 2015 年期间制定和模拟，然后将调查期间延长，该模型模拟一直进行到 2025 年。这项研究的最重要结果之一是环境对生态旅游需求的影响。环境退化和环境质量下降导致生态旅游需求减少。通过这种动态，本研究预测了生态旅游的未来，并根据模型变量的行为设计了一组可持续和全面发展生态旅游的政策，以防止环境恶化，同时确保生态旅游需求不受负面影响。最后，在这些政策中选择了最佳政策“根据地区环境状况进行建设”。
