Emerg Infect Dis. 2018 Dec;24(12):2270-2283. doi: 10.3201/eid2412.171860.
We analyzed the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5 epizootic of 2016-17 in Europe by epidemiologic and genetic characteristics and compared it with 2 previous epizootics caused by the same H5 Guangdong lineage. The 2016-17 epizootic was the largest in Europe by number of countries and farms affected and greatest diversity of wild birds infected. We observed significant differences among the 3 epizootics regarding region affected, epidemic curve, seasonality, and outbreak duration, making it difficult to predict future HPAI epizootics. However, we know that in 2005-06 and 2016-17 the initial peak of wild bird detections preceded the peak of poultry outbreaks within Europe. Phylogenetic analysis of 2016-17 viruses indicates 2 main pathways into Europe. Our findings highlight the need for global surveillance of viral changes to inform disease preparedness, detection, and control.
我们分析了欧洲 2016-17 年高致病性禽流感（HPAI）疫情的流行病学和遗传特征，并将其与由同一 H5 广东谱系引起的前两次疫情进行了比较。2016-17 年疫情是欧洲受影响国家和农场数量最多、感染野生鸟类多样性最大的一次。我们观察到这三次疫情在受影响地区、疫情曲线、季节性和爆发持续时间方面存在显著差异，这使得预测未来的高致病性禽流感疫情变得困难。然而，我们知道在 2005-06 年和 2016-17 年，野生鸟类检测的初始高峰先于欧洲家禽疫情的高峰。对 2016-17 年病毒的系统进化分析表明有 2 条主要途径进入欧洲。我们的研究结果强调了需要进行全球病毒变化监测，以为疾病准备、检测和控制提供信息。
