Soils, Water and Environment Research Institute, Agricultural Research Center, Giza, Egypt.
Soil and Water Dept, Faculty of Agriculture, Tanta University, Egypt.
Sci Total Environ. 2019 Feb 15;651(Pt 2):3161-3173. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.10.209. Epub 2018 Oct 16.
Climate change poses a serious threat to arid and low elevation coastal zones. Kafrelsheikh governorate, as a large agricultural and coastal region on the Egyptian North Nile Delta, is one of the most vulnerable areas to higher temperature and global sea level rise. Two DSSAT wheat models (CERES and N-Wheat) were calibrated using a local cultivar (Misr3) grown under irrigated conditions in Egypt. Experimental data of two successive growing seasons during 2014/2015 and 2015/2016 were used for calibration using different treatments of irrigation, planting dates and fertilization. Both models simulated the phenology and wheat yield well, with root mean square deviation of <10%, and d-index > 0.80. Climate change sensitivity analysis showed that rising temperature by 1 °C to 4 °C decreased wheat yield by 17.6%. However, elevated atmospheric CO concentrations increased yield and could overtake some of the negative temperature responses. Sea level rise by 2.0 m will reduce the extent of agricultural land on the North Nile Delta of Egypt by ~60% creating an additional challenge to wheat production in this region.
气候变化对干旱和低海拔沿海地区构成严重威胁。卡夫拉谢赫省是埃及尼罗河三角洲北部的一个大型农业和沿海地区，是受高温和全球海平面上升影响最严重的地区之一。使用在埃及灌溉条件下种植的当地品种（Misr3），对两种 DSSAT 小麦模型（CERES 和 N-Wheat）进行了校准。使用不同的灌溉、种植日期和施肥处理，利用 2014/2015 年和 2015/2016 年两个连续生长季节的实验数据进行了校准。这两种模型都很好地模拟了物候和小麦产量，均方根偏差<10%，d 指数>0.80。气候变化敏感性分析表明，温度升高 1°C 至 4°C 将使小麦产量降低 17.6%。然而，大气 CO2 浓度升高会增加产量，并可能抵消部分温度升高的负面影响。海平面上升 2.0 米将使埃及尼罗河三角洲的农业用地减少约 60%，这将给该地区的小麦生产带来额外的挑战。
