Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University, Blichers Allé 20, DK-8830 Tjele, Denmark.
Food Addit Contam Part A Chem Anal Control Expo Risk Assess. 2012;29(10):1527-42. doi: 10.1080/19440049.2012.712060. Epub 2012 Aug 30.
The phenological development of cereal crops from emergence through flowering to maturity is largely controlled by temperature, but also affected by day length and potential physiological stresses. Responses may vary between species and varieties. Climate change will affect the timing of cereal crop development, but exact changes will also depend on changes in varieties as affected by plant breeding and variety choices. This study aimed to assess changes in timing of major phenological stages of cereal crops in Northern and Central Europe under climate change. Records on dates of sowing, flowering, and maturity of wheat, oats and maize were collected from field experiments conducted during the period 1985-2009. Data for spring wheat and spring oats covered latitudes from 46 to 64°N, winter wheat from 46 to 61°N, and maize from 47 to 58°N. The number of observations (site-year-variety combinations) varied with phenological phase, but exceeded 2190, 227, 2076 and 1506 for winter wheat, spring wheat, spring oats and maize, respectively. The data were used to fit simple crop development models, assuming that the duration of the period until flowering depends on temperature and day length for wheat and oats, and on temperature for maize, and that the duration of the period from flowering to maturity in all species depends on temperature only. Species-specific base temperatures were used. Sowing date of spring cereals was estimated using a threshold temperature for the mean air temperature during 10 days prior to sowing. The mean estimated temperature thresholds for sowing were 6.1, 7.1 and 10.1°C for oats, wheat and maize, respectively. For spring oats and wheat the temperature threshold increased with latitude. The effective temperature sums required for both flowering and maturity increased with increasing mean annual temperature of the location, indicating that varieties are well adapted to given conditions. The responses of wheat and oats were largest for the period from flowering to maturity. Changes in timing of cereal phenology by 2040 were assessed for two climate model projections according to the observed dependencies on temperature and day length. The results showed advancements of sowing date of spring cereals by 1-3 weeks depending on climate model and region within Europe. The changes were largest in Northern Europe. Timing of flowering and maturity were projected to advance by 1-3 weeks. The changes were largest for grain maize and smallest for winter wheat, and they were generally largest in the western and northern part of the domain. There were considerable differences in predicted timing of sowing, flowering and maturity between the two climate model projections applied.
谷物作物从出苗到开花再到成熟的物候发育在很大程度上受温度控制，但也受日照长度和潜在生理胁迫的影响。不同物种和品种的反应可能不同。气候变化将影响谷物作物发育的时间，但具体变化也将取决于植物育种和品种选择对品种的影响。本研究旨在评估在气候变化下，北欧和中欧主要谷物作物物候阶段的时间变化。从 1985 年至 2009 年期间进行的田间试验中收集了小麦、燕麦和玉米的播种、开花和成熟日期记录。春小麦和春燕麦的数据涵盖了北纬 46 度至 64 度的地区，冬小麦涵盖了北纬 46 度至 61 度的地区，玉米涵盖了北纬 47 度至 58 度的地区。观测次数（田间-年-品种组合）随物候阶段而变化，但分别超过 2190、227、2076 和 1506 次，用于冬小麦、春小麦、春燕麦和玉米。数据用于拟合简单的作物发育模型，假设直到开花的时间段的持续时间取决于小麦和燕麦的温度和日照长度，而玉米的持续时间则取决于所有物种的开花到成熟的时间段仅取决于温度。使用了特定于物种的基础温度。使用播种前 10 天平均空气温度的阈值来估计春粮的播种日期。春燕麦和春小麦的平均估计播种温度阈值分别为 6.1°C、7.1°C 和 10.1°C。春燕麦和春小麦的温度阈值随纬度增加而增加。开花和成熟所需的有效温度总和随着位置的年平均温度的增加而增加，表明品种很好地适应了给定的条件。小麦和燕麦对从开花到成熟的时间段的反应最大。根据对温度和日照长度的观察依赖性，评估了 2040 年谷物物候的时间变化。结果表明，根据欧洲不同地区的气候模型预测，春粮的播种日期将提前 1-3 周。北欧的变化最大。开花和成熟的时间预计将提前 1-3 周。谷物玉米的变化最大，冬小麦的变化最小，而且通常在该区域的西部和北部最大。所应用的两种气候模型预测的播种、开花和成熟的预测时间存在相当大的差异。
