发表偏倚对 Q 检验和异质性评估的影响。

The effect of publication bias on the Q test and assessment of heterogeneity.

机构信息

Department of Methodology and Statistics.

Department of Sociology.

出版信息

Psychol Methods. 2019 Feb;24(1):116-134. doi: 10.1037/met0000197. Epub 2018 Nov 29.

Abstract

One of the main goals of meta-analysis is to test for and estimate the heterogeneity of effect sizes. We examined the effect of publication bias on the test and assessments of heterogeneity as a function of true heterogeneity, publication bias, true effect size, number of studies, and variation of sample sizes. The present study has two main contributions and is relevant to all researchers conducting meta-analysis. First, we show when and how publication bias affects the assessment of heterogeneity. The expected values of heterogeneity measures ² and ² were analytically derived, and the power and Type I error rate of the test were examined in a Monte Carlo simulation study. Our results show that the effect of publication bias on the test and assessment of heterogeneity is large, complex, and nonlinear. Publication bias can both dramatically decrease and increase heterogeneity in true effect size, particularly if the number of studies is large and population effect size is small. We therefore conclude that the test of homogeneity and heterogeneity measures ² and ² are generally not valid when publication bias is present. Our second contribution is that we introduce a web application, Q-sense, which can be used to determine the impact of publication bias on the assessment of heterogeneity within a certain meta-analysis and to assess the robustness of the meta-analytic estimate to publication bias. Furthermore, we apply Q-sense to 2 published meta-analyses, showing how publication bias can result in invalid estimates of effect size and heterogeneity. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2019 APA, all rights reserved).

摘要

元分析的主要目标之一是检验和估计效应大小的异质性。我们考察了发表偏倚对检验和异质性评估的影响,其影响因素包括真实异质性、发表偏倚、真实效应大小、研究数量和样本量变化。本研究有两个主要贡献,对所有进行元分析的研究人员都具有重要意义。首先,我们展示了发表偏倚何时以及如何影响异质性的评估。通过解析方法推导出异质性度量²和²的期望值,并在蒙特卡罗模拟研究中检验了检验的功效和Ⅰ型错误率。研究结果表明,发表偏倚对检验和异质性评估的影响是大的、复杂的和非线性的。发表偏倚既可以显著降低也可以增加真实效应大小的异质性,尤其是在研究数量大且人群效应大小小时。因此,我们得出结论,当存在发表偏倚时,同质性检验和异质性度量²和²通常是无效的。我们的第二个贡献是引入了一个名为 Q-sense 的网络应用程序,该应用程序可用于确定发表偏倚对特定元分析中异质性评估的影响,并评估元分析估计值对发表偏倚的稳健性。此外,我们将 Q-sense 应用于 2 项已发表的元分析,展示了发表偏倚如何导致效应大小和异质性的无效估计。(PsycINFO 数据库记录(c)2019 APA,保留所有权利)。

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