Department of Biomedical, Metabolic and Neural Sciences, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Via G. Campi, 287, 41125, Modena, Italy.
Department of Economics and Marco Biagi Foundation, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Via J. Berengario, 51, 41121, Modena, Italy.
Eur J Health Econ. 2019 Jun;20(4):569-577. doi: 10.1007/s10198-018-1018-7. Epub 2018 Dec 12.
From the mid-1990s on, the suicide rate in Italy declined steadily, then apparently rose again after the onset of the Great Recession, along with a sharp increase in unemployment. The aim of this study is to test the association between the suicide rate and unemployment (i.e., the unemployment rate for males and females in the period 1977-2015, and the long-term unemployment rate in the period 1983-2012) in Italy, by means of cointegration techniques. The analysis was adjusted for public unemployment spending (referring to the period 1980-2012). The study identified a long-run relationship between the suicide rate and long-term unemployment. On the other hand, an association between suicide and unemployment rate emerged, though statistically weaker. A 1% increase in long-term unemployment increases the suicide rate by 0.83%, with a long-term effect lasting up to 18 years. Public unemployment spending (as percentage of the Italian gross domestic product) may mitigate this association: when its annual growth rate is higher than 0.18%, no impact of unemployment on suicide in detectable. A decrease in the suicide rate is expected for higher amounts of social spending, which may be able to compensate for the reduced level of social integration resulting from unemployment, helping the individual to continue to integrate into society. A corollary of this is that austerity in times of economic recession may exacerbate the impact of the economic downturn on mental health. However, a specific "flexicurity" system (intended as a combination of high employment protection, job satisfaction and labour-market policies) may have a positive impact on health.
自 20 世纪 90 年代中期以来,意大利的自杀率稳步下降,随后在大衰退开始后再次明显上升,同时失业率急剧上升。本研究旨在通过协整技术检验意大利自杀率与失业率(即 1977 年至 2015 年期间男性和女性的失业率以及 1983 年至 2012 年期间的长期失业率)之间的关联。分析调整了公共失业支出(指 1980 年至 2012 年期间)。研究发现,自杀率与长期失业之间存在长期关系。另一方面,尽管统计学上较弱,但自杀与失业率之间存在关联。长期失业率每增加 1%,自杀率就会增加 0.83%,长期影响可持续长达 18 年。公共失业支出(占意大利国内生产总值的百分比)可能会减轻这种关联:当它的年增长率高于 0.18%时,就无法检测到失业对自杀的影响。较高的社会支出预计会降低自杀率,因为它可能能够弥补失业导致的社会融合水平降低,帮助个人继续融入社会。这意味着在经济衰退时期实行紧缩政策可能会加剧经济衰退对心理健康的影响。然而,特定的“灵活保障”体系(旨在结合高就业保护、工作满意度和劳动力市场政策)可能对健康产生积极影响。