Feinstein A R
Clinical Epidemiology Unit, Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, CT 06510.
Science. 1988 Dec 2;242(4883):1257-63. doi: 10.1126/science.3057627.
Many substances used in daily life, such as coffee, alcohol, and pharmaceutical treatment for hypertension, have been accused of "menace" in causing cancer or other major diseases. Although some of the accusations have subsequently been refuted or withdrawn, they have usually been based on statistical associations in epidemiologic studies that could not be done with the customary experimental methods of science. With these epidemiologic methods, however, the fundamental scientific standards used to specify hypotheses and groups, get high-quality data, analyze attributable actions, and avoid detection bias may also be omitted. Despite peer-review approval, the current methods need substantial improvement to produce trustworthy scientific evidence.
许多日常生活中使用的物质，如咖啡、酒精以及治疗高血压的药物，都被指责在引发癌症或其他重大疾病方面具有“威胁性”。尽管其中一些指责后来被反驳或撤回，但它们通常是基于流行病学研究中的统计关联，而这些研究无法用科学的常规实验方法进行。然而，使用这些流行病学方法时，用于明确假设和分组、获取高质量数据、分析可归因行为以及避免检测偏差的基本科学标准也可能被忽略。尽管经过同行评审批准，但目前的方法仍需要大幅改进才能产生可靠的科学证据。
