The replication crisis in epidemiology: snowball, snow job, or winter solstice?

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Like a snowball rolling down a steep hill, the most recent crisis over the perceived lack of reproducibility of scientific results has outpaced the evidence of crisis. It has led to new actions and new guidelines that have been rushed to market without plans for evaluation, metrics for success, or due consideration of the potential for unintended consequences.

RECENT FINDINGS

The perception of the crisis is at least partly a snow job, heavily influenced by a small number of centers lavishly funded by a single foundation, with undue and unsupported attention to preregistration as a solution to the perceived crisis. At the same time, the perception of crisis provides an opportunity for introspection. Two studies' estimates of association may differ because of undue attention on null hypothesis statistical testing, because of differences in the distribution of effect modifiers, because of differential susceptibility to threats to validity, or for other reasons. Perhaps the expectation of what reproducible epidemiology ought to look like is more misguided than the practice of epidemiology. We advocate for the idea of "replication and advancement." Studies should not only replicate earlier work, but also improve on it in by enhancing the design or analysis.

SUMMARY

Abandoning blind reliance on null hypothesis significance testing for statistical inference, finding consensus on when pre-registration of non-randomized study protocols has merit, and focusing on replication and advance are the most certain ways to emerge from this solstice for the better.