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将本地适应纳入气候变化下物种分布和丰度预测中。

Incorporating local adaptation into forecasts of species' distribution and abundance under climate change.

机构信息

Environmental Studies Program, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, Colorado.

Biology Department, Duke University, Durham, North California.

出版信息

Glob Chang Biol. 2019 Mar;25(3):775-793. doi: 10.1111/gcb.14562. Epub 2019 Jan 24.

Abstract

Populations of many species are genetically adapted to local historical climate conditions. Yet most forecasts of species' distributions under climate change have ignored local adaptation (LA), which may paint a false picture of how species will respond across their geographic ranges. We review recent studies that have incorporated intraspecific variation, a potential proxy for LA, into distribution forecasts, assess their strengths and weaknesses, and make recommendations for how to improve forecasts in the face of LA. The three methods used so far (species distribution models, response functions, and mechanistic models) reflect a trade-off between data availability and the ability to rigorously demonstrate LA to climate. We identify key considerations for incorporating LA into distribution forecasts that are currently missing from many published studies, including testing the spatial scale and pattern of LA, the confounding effects of LA to nonclimatic or biotic drivers, and the need to incorporate empirically based dispersal or gene flow processes. We suggest approaches to better evaluate these aspects of LA and their effects on species-level forecasts. In particular, we highlight demographic and dynamic evolutionary models as promising approaches to better integrate LA into forecasts, and emphasize the importance of independent model validation. Finally, we urge closer examination of how LA will alter the responses of central vs. marginal populations to allow stronger generalizations about changes in distribution and abundance in the face of LA.

摘要

许多物种的种群在遗传上适应了当地的历史气候条件。然而,大多数关于物种在气候变化下分布的预测都忽略了本地适应(LA),这可能会对物种在地理分布范围内的反应产生错误的描述。我们回顾了最近将种内变异(LA 的潜在代表)纳入分布预测的研究,评估了它们的优缺点,并就如何在面对 LA 时改进预测提出了建议。迄今为止使用的三种方法(物种分布模型、响应函数和机制模型)反映了数据可用性和严格证明 LA 对气候的能力之间的权衡。我们确定了将 LA 纳入分布预测的关键考虑因素,这些因素目前在许多已发表的研究中都缺失了,包括测试 LA 的空间尺度和模式、LA 对非气候或生物驱动因素的混淆影响,以及需要纳入基于经验的扩散或基因流过程。我们建议采用更好的方法来评估这些 LA 方面及其对物种水平预测的影响。特别是,我们强调了人口和动态进化模型作为将 LA 更好地纳入预测的有前途的方法,并强调了独立模型验证的重要性。最后,我们敦促更仔细地研究 LA 将如何改变中心和边缘种群的反应,以便在面对 LA 时能够更加强化对分布和丰度变化的概括。

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