Avoiding postoperative mortality after ALPPS-development of a tumor-specific risk score for colorectal liver metastases.

BACKGROUND

ALPPS is a two-stage hepatectomy that induces more rapid liver growth compared to conventional strategies. This report aims to establish a risk-score to avoid adverse outcomes of ALPPS only for patients with colorectal liver metastases (CRLM) as primary indication for ALPPS.

METHODS

All patients with CRLM included in the ALPPS registry were included. Risk score analysis was performed for 90-day mortality after ALPPS, defined as death within 90 days after either stage. Two risk scores were generated i.e. one for application before stage-1, and one for application before stage-2. Logistic regression analysis was performed to establish the risk-score.

RESULTS

In total, 486 patients were included, of which 35 (7%) died 90 days after stage-1 or 2. In the stage-1 risk score, age ≥67 years (OR 3.7), FLR/BW ratio <0.40 (OR 2.9) and total center-volume (OR 2.4) were included. For the stage-2 score age ≥67 years (OR 3.7), FLR/BW ratio <0.40 (OR 2.8), bilirubin 5 days after stage-1 >50 μmol/L (OR 2.4), and stage-1 morbidity grade IIIA or higher (OR 6.3) were included.

CONCLUSIONS

The CRLM risk-score to predict mortality after ALPPS demonstrates that older patients with small remnant livers in inexperienced centers, especially after experiencing morbidity after stage-1 have adverse outcomes. The risk score may be used to restrict ALPPS to low-risk patient populations.