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模拟一个预防性行为群体的流行病学影响。

Modeling the epidemiological impact of a preventive behavioral group.

作者信息

Córdova-Lepe Fernando, Cabrera Hernández Maritza, Gutiérrez-Jara Juan Pablo

机构信息

Facultad de Ciencias Básicas, Universidad Católica del Maule, Región del Maule, Chile. Address: Universidad Católica del Maule, Avenida San Miguel 3605, Talca, Región del Maule, Chile, CP: 3480112. Email:

Vicerrectoría de Investigación y Postgrado, Universidad Católica del Maule, Región del Maule, Chile.

出版信息

Medwave. 2018 Dec 28;18(8):e7396. doi: 10.5867/medwave.2018.08.7396.

DOI:10.5867/medwave.2018.08.7396
PMID:30633737
Abstract

Concerning health, experience indicates that in all human groups a percentage of individuals behave conscientiously when facing contagious diseases. This aware group responds with activities to prevent disease transmission and to minimize risk. In contrast, other individuals tend to behave with less engagement except in catastrophic cases. Assuming the theoretical and methodological framework provided by mathematical epidemiology, and based on a Susceptible – Infectious - Recovered (SIR) model, we evaluated the factors of size and intensity of the behaviours in the aware group to determine the basic reproduction number. This number is the reduction in the number of secondary cases that would be produced by a first infectious individual. Additionally, we calculated the total and individual prevented prevalence for each aware individual for different parametric scenarios. Lastly, we suggest that distance and interpersonal contact should be included as factors associated to the potential of transmission.

摘要

关于健康,经验表明,在所有人类群体中,一定比例的个体在面对传染病时会自觉行动。这个有防范意识的群体通过采取行动来预防疾病传播并将风险降至最低。相比之下,其他个体除非在灾难情况下,往往参与度较低。基于数理流行病学提供的理论和方法框架,并采用易感-感染-康复(SIR)模型,我们评估了有防范意识群体中行为的规模和强度因素,以确定基本再生数。这个数字是由首个感染个体产生的二代病例数的减少量。此外,我们计算了不同参数情景下每个有防范意识个体的总体和个体预防患病率。最后,我们建议应将距离和人际接触作为与传播潜力相关的因素纳入考量。

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引用本文的文献

1
An SIR-type epidemiological model that integrates social distancing as a dynamic law based on point prevalence and socio-behavioral factors.一个 SIR 型的流行病学模型,该模型将社交距离作为一个基于时点流行率和社会行为因素的动态法则进行整合。
Sci Rep. 2021 May 13;11(1):10170. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-89492-x.