Golubev A G
N.N.Petrov National Medical Research Center of Oncology, 68, Leningradskaya srt., Pesochnyi, St. Petersburg, 197758, Russian Federation; e-mail:
Adv Gerontol. 2018;31(5):616-627.
World Bank and Russian Federal State Statistics Service data were used to analyze cross-country correlations between life expectancy (LE) and per capita gross domestic product (pcGDP). The resulting world trend (Preston curve) as of 2015 was compared with the trend revealed by plotting regional LE vs. pcGDP related to the major administrative areas of the Russian Federation (RF). Besides that, correlations between the same parameters related to different years, from 1960 to 2015, were examined in each of several selected countries representing the upper and lower extremes of pcGDP and LE. The same has been done with per capita health care expenditures (pcHCE) vs. LE. In all cases, the points related to RF are found significantly lower the respective regression lines (Preston curves) built based on all points. The LE vs. pcGDP and LE vs. pcHCE plots and their extrapolations built based on data related to different years in the same country run markedly lower in the case of RF compared with other countries, including Tajikistan and the Republic of Congo. At the same time, the proportion between pcGDP and pcHCE has been shown to be the same throughout all years and all countries. Taken together, these observations suggest that the effectiveness of investing the available resources into LE, that is in human life quality, is markedly lower in Russia compared not only with Finland and Japan, where pcGDP and pcHCE are several times greater than in RF, but also with Congo and Tajikistan, where these parameters are several fold smaller, than in RF. This means that by merely increasing pcGDP and pcHCE it is impossible to increase LE in Russia above 80 years declared a national priority. Identifying the factors responsible for the above disproportions is beyond the scope of the present paper. However, the mere awareness of their existence is essential as an incentive to take special efforts aimed at the identification and neutralization of these factors.
世界银行和俄罗斯联邦国家统计局的数据被用于分析预期寿命（LE）与人均国内生产总值（pcGDP）之间的跨国相关性。将2015年得出的全球趋势（普雷斯顿曲线）与通过绘制俄罗斯联邦（RF）主要行政区的地区预期寿命与人均国内生产总值的关系所揭示的趋势进行比较。除此之外，还考察了1960年至2015年期间，在几个代表人均国内生产总值和预期寿命高低极端情况的选定国家中，相同参数在不同年份之间的相关性。人均医疗保健支出（pcHCE）与预期寿命的关系也进行了同样的分析。在所有情况下，与俄罗斯联邦相关的点明显低于基于所有点构建的各自回归线（普雷斯顿曲线）。与包括塔吉克斯坦和刚果共和国在内的其他国家相比，俄罗斯联邦基于同一国家不同年份数据绘制的预期寿命与人均国内生产总值以及预期寿命与人均医疗保健支出的图表及其外推线明显更低。与此同时，人均国内生产总值与人均医疗保健支出之间的比例在所有年份和所有国家都是相同的。综合来看，这些观察结果表明，在俄罗斯，将可用资源投资于预期寿命，即人类生活质量，其效率不仅明显低于芬兰和日本（在芬兰和日本，人均国内生产总值和人均医疗保健支出比俄罗斯联邦高出数倍），而且也低于刚果和塔吉克斯坦（在刚果和塔吉克斯坦，这些参数比俄罗斯联邦小几倍）。这意味着仅通过增加人均国内生产总值和人均医疗保健支出，在俄罗斯不可能将预期寿命提高到国家优先宣布的80岁以上。确定造成上述不均衡的因素超出了本文的范围。然而，仅仅意识到它们的存在对于激励人们做出特别努力以识别和消除这些因素至关重要。
