Heller School for Social Policy and Management, Brandeis University, Waltham, MA, USA.
The INCLEN Trust International, New Delhi, India.
Int J Infect Dis. 2019 Jul;84S:S68-S73. doi: 10.1016/j.ijid.2019.01.010. Epub 2019 Jan 11.
This paper concerns a systematic analysis of dengue illness and costs in India from 2013 to 2016. A previous study for 2006-2012 found that that projected annual number of dengue cases (5.78 million) was 282 times the officially reported number (20,474), highlighting enormous uncertainty.
This study updated primary data for India from 2012 to 2014 and synthesized the latest epidemiological and economic literature through 2018 using the country and global estimates.
The first empirically-based publication of dengue costs by country (in 2016) estimated India experienced 18,618,706 symptomatic dengue cases and 1602 deaths, and cost $1.51 billion in 2013. With a combination of increased incidence, more refined methods, and better data this 2018 study raised the latest estimates to 53,210,706 cases, 22,527 deaths, and $5.71 billion economic costs for 2016, representing increases over the previous publication of 186%, 1306%, and 278%, respectively. When consistent methods and data were used to compare 2013 to 2016, the corresponding changes were only +29%, -9%, and +12%, respectively over these 3 years.
India's burden of dengue is substantially greater than previously estimated. Although uncertainty intervals remain wide, these latest estimates reinforce the health and economic benefits that India would realize if dengue were substantially controlled.
本文对 2013 年至 2016 年印度登革热疾病和成本进行了系统分析。先前针对 2006-2012 年的研究发现，预计每年登革热病例数（578 万）是官方报告数（20474）的 282 倍，这突显了巨大的不确定性。
本研究更新了印度 2012 年至 2014 年的原始数据，并结合最新的国家和全球估计，综合了 2018 年之前的最新流行病学和经济学文献。
首次按国家发布的登革热成本实证出版物（2016 年）估计印度有 18618706 例有症状登革热病例和 1602 例死亡病例，2013 年的费用为 15.1 亿美元。本研究结合发病率上升、方法更精确和数据更好的情况，将最新估计值提高到 2016 年的 53210706 例、22527 例死亡和 57.1 亿美元经济成本，分别比上一次出版物增加了 186%、1306%和 278%。当使用一致的方法和数据比较 2013 年至 2016 年时，这 3 年的相应变化分别仅为+29%、-9%和+12%。
印度的登革热负担远远超过先前的估计。尽管不确定性区间仍然很大，但这些最新估计加强了印度在大幅控制登革热后将实现的健康和经济效益。
