气候变化背景下的极端事件。

Extreme events in the context of climate change.

作者信息

Perkins-Kirkpatrick Sarah, Pitman Andy

机构信息

Climate Change Research Centre, UNSW Sydney, Australia; Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, UNSW Sydney,

Climate Change Research Centre, UNSW Sydney, Australia; Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, UNSW Sydney.

出版信息

Public Health Res Pract. 2018 Dec 6;28(4):2841825. doi: 10.17061/phrp2841825.

DOI:10.17061/phrp2841825

PMID:30652185

Abstract

By definition, extreme events are rare. Socio-economic and human systems have not experienced adverse extreme events frequently enough to develop resilience, whether this be physical, economical or structural. Humans are vulnerable to extreme events because of our physiology and because we build thresholds into our socio-economic and human health systems. When these thresholds are exceeded the consequences can be devastating. This perspective will discuss changes in heat, drought and heavy rainfall extremes in the context of climate change.

摘要

从定义上讲，极端事件是罕见的。社会经济和人类系统并未频繁经历不利的极端事件，因而无法形成适应力，无论是物理上、经济上还是结构上的适应力。由于我们的生理特征，也由于我们在社会经济和人类健康系统中设定了阈值，人类易受极端事件影响。当这些阈值被突破时，后果可能是毁灭性的。本视角将在气候变化的背景下讨论极端高温、干旱和强降雨的变化。