Department of Psychiatry & Biobehavioral Sciences, Semel Institute, University of California, Los Angeles, United States of America.
College of Public Health and Human Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon, United States of America.
PLoS One. 2019 Jan 17;14(1):e0209073. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0209073. eCollection 2019.
In high-income countries, individual- and community-level factors are associated with increased contact with the criminal justice system. However, little is known about how these factors contribute to the risk of arrest in South Africa, which has one of the highest rates of arrests globally. We examine both individual- and community-level factors associated with arrests among young men living in the townships of Cape Town.
Data were collected from a stratified community sample of 906 young men aged 18-29 years old living in 18 township neighborhoods. Communities with high and low rates of arrest were identified. Logistic regression models were used to assess which individual-level (such as substance use and mental health status) and community-level (such as infrastructure and presence of bars and gangs) factors predict arrests.
Significant predictors of arrests were substance use, gang activity, being older, more stressed, and less educated. Living in communities with better infrastructure and in more recently established communities populated by recent immigrants was associated with having a history of arrests.
When considering both individual- and community-level factors, substance use and gang violence are the strongest predictors of arrests among young men in South Africa. Unexpectedly, communities with better infrastructure have higher arrest rates. Community programs are needed to combat substance use and gang activity as a pathway out of risk among South African young men.
ClinicalTrials.gov registration #NCT02358226, registered Nov 24, 2014.
在高收入国家，个体和社区层面的因素与更多地接触刑事司法系统有关。然而，在南非，人们对这些因素如何导致被捕风险知之甚少，南非的逮捕率是全球最高之一。我们研究了与居住在开普敦乡镇的年轻男性被捕相关的个体和社区层面的因素。
数据来自于 18 个乡镇社区的分层社区样本，共收集了 906 名 18-29 岁的年轻男性的数据。确定了逮捕率较高和较低的社区。使用逻辑回归模型评估个体层面（如物质使用和心理健康状况）和社区层面（如基础设施以及酒吧和帮派的存在）的哪些因素预测逮捕。
有显著预测力的逮捕因素包括物质使用、帮派活动、年龄较大、压力较大和受教育程度较低。居住在基础设施较好的社区和由最近移民组成的新建立的社区中与有被捕史有关。
考虑到个体和社区层面的因素，物质使用和帮派暴力是南非年轻男性被捕的最强预测因素。出乎意料的是，基础设施较好的社区逮捕率更高。需要开展社区项目来打击物质使用和帮派活动，以此作为南非年轻男性摆脱风险的途径。
ClinicalTrials.gov 注册号 NCT02358226，注册于 2014 年 11 月 24 日。
