Siatkowski R Michael, Mian Shahzad I, Culican Susan M, Green Laura K, Sun Grace, Waxman Evan L, Wayman Laura L, Stoner Julie, Chen Xi, Feldon Steven
Department of Ophthalmology, Dean McGee Eye Institute, University of Oklahoma, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.
Department of Ophthalmology and Visual Sciences, University of Michigan Kellogg Eye Center, Ann Arbor, Michigan.
J Acad Ophthalmol (2017). 2018 Jan;10(1):e150-e157. doi: 10.1055/s-0038-1673675.
To develop a probability model of matching into a US ophthalmology residency program using San Francisco Matching Program (SF Match) data.
Retrospective data analysis of de-identified application and matching data.
Registrants for the 2013, 2014, and 2015 ophthalmology residency matches conducted by the SF Match.
Descriptive statistics of candidates, comparison of continuous and categorical variables between matched and nonmatched candidates, and linear regression modeling were performed. A recursive partitioning method was used to create a probability of matching algorithm.
Probability of successfully matching based on quantifiable candidate characteristics.
Over the 3-year period, 1,959 individuals submitted an average of 64 applications and received a mean of nine interview invitations. The overall match rate was 71%, with 78% matching at one of their top five choices. Successful matches were more likely to occur in US medical school graduates (78% vs 20%, < 0.001) and applicants on their first attempt (76% vs 29%, < 0.001). The association between matching and number of programs applied became negative with > 48 applications. Probability of matching was "high" (> 80%) among US graduates with a step 1 United States Medical Licensing Examination (USMLE)score>243(regardless of number of programs applied to), a step 1 USMLE score of 231 to 243 who applied to at least 30 programs, and first-time applicants with a step 1 score >232. No international medical graduates or repeat applicants had a "high" probability of matching.
Although advice must be individualized for each candidate, applicants for ophthalmology residency who fall into a "high" probability of matching group are likely to be successful with applications to 45 or fewer programs. Applying to 80 or more programs should be considered for international medical graduates and/or applicants who are previously unmatched. Modification of the match application data form may allow more detailed analysis of variables such as Alpha Omega Alpha or Gold Humanism Honor Society membership, research activity, and composite evaluation on a standardized letter of recommendation.
利用旧金山配对项目（SF Match）的数据，建立一个关于匹配进入美国眼科住院医师培训项目的概率模型。
对匿名的申请和配对数据进行回顾性数据分析。
参加2013年、2014年和2015年由SF Match举办的眼科住院医师配对的注册者。
对候选人进行描述性统计，比较配对和未配对候选人之间的连续变量和分类变量，并进行线性回归建模。采用递归划分方法创建一个匹配概率算法。
基于可量化的候选人特征成功匹配的概率。
在这3年期间，1959人平均提交了64份申请，平均收到9份面试邀请。总体匹配率为71%，78%的人在他们的前五个选择中成功匹配。成功匹配更有可能发生在美国医学院毕业生中（78%对20%，P<0.001）以及首次申请者中（76%对29%，P<0.001）。当申请项目数超过48个时，匹配与申请项目数之间的关联变为负相关。在美国毕业生中，第一步美国医师执照考试（USMLE）成绩>243（无论申请项目数多少）、第一步USMLE成绩为231至243且至少申请30个项目的人以及第一步成绩>232的首次申请者，其匹配概率为“高”（>80%）。没有国际医学毕业生或重复申请者有“高”的匹配概率。
尽管必须针对每个候选人提供个性化建议，但属于“高”匹配概率组的眼科住院医师申请者申请45个或更少项目可能会成功。国际医学毕业生和/或之前未匹配的申请者应考虑申请80个或更多项目。对匹配申请数据表单的修改可能允许对诸如阿尔法欧米茄阿尔法或金人文主义荣誉协会会员资格、研究活动以及标准化推荐信中的综合评价等变量进行更详细的分析。
