College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, 100875 Beijing, China.
Climate Modeling Laboratory, Department of Applied Mathematics, Shandong University, Jinan 250100, China; MOE Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Beijing Normal University, 100875, China.
Sci Total Environ. 2019 Mar 25;658:1064-1068. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.12.299. Epub 2018 Dec 20.
Under rapid Arctic warming, the vast amount of labile organic carbon stored in Arctic permafrost soils poses a potentially huge threat. Thawing permafrost will release hundreds of billion tons of soil carbon into the atmosphere in the form of CO and CH that would further intensify global warming and bring more challenges to human society. In this study, we use the PInc-PanTher model to estimate carbon emissions from thawing permafrost in the circum-Arctic during 2010-2100 followed by the PAGE09 integrated assessment model to evaluate the net economic losses caused by these permafrost carbon emissions. Our results show that in terms of net present value (NPV), the release of CO and CH from circum-Arctic permafrost will generate estimated net economic losses of US$2.5 trillion (5-95% range: 0.3-11.2 US$ trillion) under the RCP4.5-SPP1 scenario and US$12.7 trillion (5-95% range: 1.6-41.8 US$ trillion) under the RCP8.5-SPP3 scenario between 2010 and 2100, which contribute ~4.9% and ~6.4% respectively of net economic losses of global carbon emissions.
在北极快速变暖的情况下，大量不稳定的有机碳储存在北极永久冻土土壤中，这构成了一个潜在的巨大威胁。永久冻土的解冻将以 CO 和 CH 的形式向大气中释放数百亿吨土壤碳，这将进一步加剧全球变暖，并给人类社会带来更多挑战。在本研究中，我们使用 PInc-PanTher 模型估计了 2010-2100 年期间环北极地区永久冻土解冻的碳排放量，然后使用 PAGE09 综合评估模型评估了这些永久冻土碳排放造成的净经济损失。研究结果表明，就净现值 (NPV) 而言，在 RCP4.5-SPP1 情景下，环北极永久冻土释放的 CO 和 CH 将在 2010 年至 2100 年间产生约 2.5 万亿美元（5%至 95%范围：0.3-11.2 万亿美元）的净经济损失，在 RCP8.5-SPP3 情景下产生约 12.7 万亿美元（5%至 95%范围：1.6-41.8 万亿美元）的净经济损失，分别占全球碳排放净经济损失的4.9%和6.4%。
