Wu Jianqing, Xu Hao
a Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering , University of Nevada, Reno , Reno , Nevada.
Traffic Inj Prev. 2018;19(8):838-843. doi: 10.1080/15389588.2018.1524142. Epub 2019 Jan 28.
Rural 2-lane, 2-way (RTLTW) highways comprise a large portion of the rural road network in the United States. Crashes on RTLTW roads have been a major concern for traffic safety and may impact traffic significantly. Driver behavior on RTLTW roads has not been analyzed thoroughly. This article analyzed the role of driver behavior fault in crashes/near-crashes on RTLTW roads.
A total of 467 crash/near-crash records and 160 baseline events (normal driving) were extracted from the Strategic Highway Research Program 2 Naturalistic Driving Study (NDS) database. The contribution of driver behavior to crash risk compared to roadway geometry and environmental factors was ranked using random forest. The influence of different factors on driver behavior fault in a crash/near-crash was further examined using a probit model. The reliability of the model was evaluated using 3 different parameters.
It was found that driver behavior fault was the most important factor in crashes that occurred on RTLTW roads. Driver age, traffic density, alignment, presence of an intersection, and hands on wheel were found to be highly related to driver behavior fault.
Young drivers (16-19 years old) were more likely to have driving behavior fault compared to other age groups. The presence of an intersection may also slightly increase the probability of driver behavior fault. The curve on the road can increase the risk of driver behavior fault. Drivers were more likely to have driver behavior fault when no hands were on the wheel. Sites with curves near intersections are locations where drivers are more likely to have behavior fault.
农村双车道双向公路(RTLTW)在美国农村公路网中占很大比例。RTLTW道路上的撞车事故一直是交通安全的主要关注点,可能会对交通产生重大影响。尚未对RTLTW道路上的驾驶员行为进行全面分析。本文分析了驾驶员行为失误在RTLTW道路撞车/险些撞车事故中的作用。
从战略公路研究计划2自然驾驶研究(NDS)数据库中提取了467条撞车/险些撞车记录和160个基线事件(正常驾驶)。使用随机森林对驾驶员行为与道路几何形状和环境因素相比对撞车风险的贡献进行了排名。使用概率模型进一步研究了不同因素对撞车/险些撞车事故中驾驶员行为失误的影响。使用3个不同参数评估了模型的可靠性。
发现驾驶员行为失误是RTLTW道路上发生撞车事故的最重要因素。发现驾驶员年龄、交通密度、线形、是否存在交叉路口以及手握方向盘情况与驾驶员行为失误高度相关。
与其他年龄组相比,年轻驾驶员(16 - 19岁)更有可能出现驾驶行为失误。交叉路口的存在也可能会略微增加驾驶员行为失误的概率。道路上的弯道会增加驾驶员行为失误的风险。当双手不握方向盘时,驾驶员更有可能出现行为失误。交叉路口附近有弯道的地点,驾驶员更有可能出现行为失误。