School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
School of Public Health and Social Work, Faculty of Health, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
Environ Health Perspect. 2019 Feb;127(2):26001. doi: 10.1289/EHP2207.
Prenatal exposures to endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs) during critical developmental windows have been implicated in the etiologies of a wide array of adverse perinatal and pediatric outcomes. Epidemiological studies have concentrated on the health effects of individual chemicals, despite the understanding that EDCs act together via common mechanisms, that pregnant women are exposed to multiple EDCs simultaneously, and that substantial toxicological evidence of adverse developmental effects has been documented. There is a move toward multipollutant models in environmental epidemiology; however, there is no current consensus on appropriate statistical methods.
We aimed to review the statistical methods used in these studies, to identify additional applicable methods, and to determine the strengths and weaknesses of each method for addressing the salient statistical and epidemiological challenges.
We searched Embase, MEDLINE, and Web of Science for epidemiological studies of endocrine-sensitive outcomes in the children of mothers exposed to EDC mixtures during pregnancy and identified alternative statistical methods from the wider literature.
We identified 74 studies and analyzed the methods used to estimate mixture health effects, identify important mixture components, account for nonmonotonicity in exposure–response relationships, assess interactions, and identify windows of exposure susceptibility. We identified both frequentist and Bayesian methods that are robust to multicollinearity, performing shrinkage, variable selection, dimension reduction, statistical learning, or smoothing, including methods that were not used by the studies included in our review.
Compelling motivation exists for analyzing EDCs as mixtures, yet many studies make simplifying assumptions about EDC additivity, relative potency, and linearity, or overlook the potential for bias due to asymmetries in chemical persistence. We discuss the potential impacts of these choices and suggest alternative methods to improve analyses of prenatal exposure to EDC mixtures. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP2207.
在关键的发育窗口期,产前暴露于内分泌干扰化学物质(EDC)与广泛的围产期和儿科不良结局的病因有关。尽管人们已经了解到 EDC 会通过共同的机制共同作用,孕妇同时会暴露于多种 EDC 中,并且已经有大量毒理学证据表明这些物质会对发育产生不良影响,但流行病学研究仍集中在个别化学物质的健康影响上。环境流行病学正在向多污染物模型转变;然而,目前对于适当的统计方法还没有共识。
我们旨在回顾这些研究中使用的统计方法,确定其他适用的方法,并确定每种方法在解决突出的统计和流行病学挑战方面的优缺点。
我们在 Embase、MEDLINE 和 Web of Science 中搜索了母亲在怀孕期间暴露于 EDC 混合物的儿童内分泌敏感结局的流行病学研究,并从更广泛的文献中确定了替代的统计方法。
我们确定了 74 项研究,并分析了用于估计混合物健康影响、识别重要混合物成分、解释暴露-反应关系中的非线性、评估相互作用以及识别暴露易感性窗口的方法。我们确定了既适用于强共线性又适用于贝叶斯方法,包括执行收缩、变量选择、降维、统计学习或平滑的方法,其中包括我们综述中未使用的方法。
分析 EDC 作为混合物具有很强的动机,但许多研究对 EDC 的加性、相对效力和线性做出了简化假设,或者忽略了由于化学物质持久性不对称而导致偏差的可能性。我们讨论了这些选择的潜在影响,并提出了替代方法来改进对产前 EDC 混合物暴露的分析。https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP2207.