Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich, Zurich 8057, Switzerland.
Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, UK.
Science. 2019 Feb 8;363(6427):631-635. doi: 10.1126/science.aau5905.
Species in extreme habitats increasingly face changes in seasonal climate, but the demographic mechanisms through which these changes affect population persistence remain unknown. We investigated how changes in seasonal rainfall and temperature influence vital rates and viability of an arid environment specialist, the Kalahari meerkat, through effects on body mass. We show that climate change-induced reduction in adult mass in the prebreeding season would decrease fecundity during the breeding season and increase extinction risk, particularly at low population densities. In contrast, a warmer nonbreeding season resulting in increased mass and survival would buffer negative effects of reduced rainfall during the breeding season, ensuring persistence. Because most ecosystems undergo seasonal climate variations, a full understanding of species vulnerability to global change relies on linking seasonal trait and population dynamics.
在极端生境中的物种越来越多地面临季节性气候变化的影响，但这些变化影响种群持续存在的人口机制仍不清楚。我们通过对体重的影响来研究季节性降雨和温度变化如何影响干旱环境专家——卡拉哈里狐獴的重要生命指标和生存能力。我们表明，繁殖季节前因气候变化导致的成年体重减轻会降低繁殖季节的繁殖力，并增加灭绝风险，尤其是在种群密度较低的情况下。相比之下，一个温暖的非繁殖季节会导致体重和存活率增加，从而缓冲繁殖季节降雨减少的负面影响，确保物种的持续存在。由于大多数生态系统都经历季节性气候变化，因此要全面了解物种对全球变化的脆弱性，就必须将季节性特征和种群动态联系起来。
