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气候变化可能是英国环颈鸫数量减少的原因。

Climate change may account for the decline in British ring ouzels Turdus torquatus.

作者信息

Beale Colin M, Burfield Ian J, Sim Innes M W, Rebecca Graham W, Pearce-Higgins James W, Grant Murray C

机构信息

RSPB Scotland, Dunedin House, 25 Ravelston Terrace, Edinburgh, EH4 3TP, UK.

出版信息

J Anim Ecol. 2006 May;75(3):826-35. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2656.2006.01102.x.

Abstract
  1. Climate change is already affecting biodiversity, but the number of species for which reliable models relate weather and climate to demographic parameters is low. 2. We modelled the effect of temperature and rainfall on the breeding success and territory occupancy of ring ouzels Turdus torquatus (L.) in northern Britain, using data from a range of study areas, including one where there was a long-term decline in ring ouzel abundance. 3. Timing of breeding was significantly related to meteorological variables affecting birds in the early spring, though there was no evidence that laying dates had advanced. Breeding success was not significantly related to weather variables; instead, over 90% of annual variation in this parameter could be explained by density dependence. 4. Annual change in territory occupancy was linked to rainfall and temperature the preceding summer, after the main breeding season and to rainfall in the wintering grounds 24 months previously, coincident with the period of juniper Juniperus sp. (L.) flowering. High temperature in late summer, intermediate levels of late summer rainfall, and high spring rainfall in Morocco 24 months previously all had negative impacts on territory occupancy the following year. 5. All three weather variables have changed over recent decades, with a significant increase in summer temperature, a significant decrease in summer rainfall, and a nonsignificant decline in Moroccan spring rainfall. A model based on these trends alone predicted an annual decline in occupancy of 3.6% (compared with an observed decline of 1.2%), and suggested that increased summer temperatures may underlie declines in the British ring ouzel population. 6. Changes in summer temperature after the main breeding period could affect the survival rates of adult and/or juvenile birds. An improved understanding of the post-breeding ecology of ring ouzels is required to elucidate the mechanisms and causes of this relationship. Such knowledge might allow management aimed at buffering the impacts of climate change on ring ouzels.
摘要
  1. 气候变化已经在影响生物多样性,但能将天气和气候与种群统计学参数联系起来的可靠模型所涉及的物种数量较少。2. 我们利用一系列研究区域的数据,模拟了温度和降雨对英国北部白眉歌鸫(Turdus torquatus (L.))繁殖成功率和领地占有率的影响,其中一个研究区域白眉歌鸫的数量长期呈下降趋势。3. 繁殖时间与影响早春鸟类的气象变量显著相关,不过没有证据表明产卵日期提前。繁殖成功率与天气变量没有显著关系;相反,该参数超过90%的年度变化可以用密度依赖性来解释。4. 领地占有率的年度变化与前一个夏天(主要繁殖季节之后)的降雨和温度以及24个月前越冬地的降雨有关,这与刺柏(Juniperus sp. (L.))开花期一致。夏末高温、夏末中等降雨量以及24个月前摩洛哥春季的高降雨量都对次年的领地占有率产生负面影响。5. 近几十年来,这三个天气变量都发生了变化,夏季温度显著升高,夏季降雨量显著减少,摩洛哥春季降雨量呈不显著下降。仅基于这些趋势的模型预测占有率每年下降3.6%(相比之下,观察到的下降率为1.2%),并表明夏季温度升高可能是英国白眉歌鸫种群数量下降的原因。6. 主要繁殖期之后夏季温度的变化可能会影响成年和/或幼鸟的存活率。需要更好地了解白眉歌鸫繁殖后的生态,以阐明这种关系的机制和原因。这些知识可能有助于制定旨在缓冲气候变化对白眉歌鸫影响的管理措施。

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