Department of Student Affairs, The 3rd Affiliated Teaching Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University (Affiliated Cancer Hospital), Urumqi, 830011, P. R. China.
Department of Infectious Diseases, The first Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi, 830054, P. R. China.
Sci Rep. 2019 Feb 7;9(1):1653. doi: 10.1038/s41598-018-38397-3.
The outbreak of the Ebola virus has resulted in significant morbidity and mortality in the affected areas, and Ebola virus RNA has been found in the semen of the survivors after 9 months of symptom onset. However, the role that sexual transmission played in the transmission is not very clear. In this paper, we developed a compartmental model for Ebola virus disease (EVD) dynamics, which includes three different infectious routes: contact with the infectious, contact with dead bodies, and transmission by sexual behaviour with convalescent survivors. We fitted the model to daily cumulative cases from the first reported infected case to October 25, 2014 for the epidemic in Sierra Leone, Liberia and Guinea. The basic reproduction numbers in these countries were estimated as 1.6726 (95%CI:1.5922-1.7573), 1.8162 (95%CI:1.7660-1.8329) and 1.4873 (95%CI:1.4770-1.4990), respectively. We calculated the contribution of sexual transmission to the basic reproduction number R as 0.1155 (6.9%), 0.0236 (2.8%) and 0.0546 (3.7%) in Sierra Leone, Liberia and Guinea, respectively. Sensitivity analysis shows that the transmission rates caused by contacts with alive patients and sexual activities with convalescent patients have stronger impacts on the R. These results suggest that isolating the infectious individuals and advising the recovery men to avoid sexual intercourse are efficient ways for the eradication of endemic EVD.
埃博拉病毒爆发导致受影响地区发病率和死亡率显著上升，在症状出现 9 个月后，幸存者的精液中发现了埃博拉病毒 RNA。然而，性传播在传播中所起的作用尚不清楚。在本文中，我们建立了埃博拉病毒病（EVD）动力学的隔室模型，该模型包括三种不同的感染途径：接触感染者、接触死者和与康复幸存者的性行为传播。我们将模型拟合到从塞拉利昂、利比里亚和几内亚首例报告的感染病例到 2014 年 10 月 25 日的每日累计病例。这些国家的基本繁殖数估计分别为 1.6726（95%CI：1.5922-1.7573）、1.8162（95%CI：1.7660-1.8329）和 1.4873（95%CI：1.4770-1.4990）。我们计算了性传播对基本繁殖数 R 的贡献，在塞拉利昂、利比里亚和几内亚，性传播的贡献分别为 0.1155（6.9%）、0.0236（2.8%）和 0.0546（3.7%）。敏感性分析表明，与存活患者接触和与康复患者发生性行为的传播率对 R 有更强的影响。这些结果表明，隔离感染者并建议康复男性避免性行为是根除地方性 EVD 的有效方法。
