San-Millán Marta, Rissech Carme, Turbón Daniel
EUSES University School of Health and Sports, University of Girona, Francesc Macià, 65 17190, Salt, Girona, Spain.
Evolutionary Biology, Ecology and Environmental Sciences Department, Faculty of Biology, University of Barcelona, Av. Diagonal 643, 08028, Barcelona, Spain.
Int J Legal Med. 2019 May;133(3):909-920. doi: 10.1007/s00414-019-02005-4. Epub 2019 Feb 7.
Recently, a renewed acetabular aging methodology was published by San-Millán et al. (Int J Leg Medicine, 47, 131: 501-525), refining the variables associated with acetabular fossa aging in different populations. Due to its novelty, this method has not yet been examined in any other population, other than it was developed and originally tested on. Therefore, the main goals of this study are two-fold: (1) to evaluate the accuracy of SanMillán-Rissech's method in a North American sample made up of 826 white (456 males and 370 females) individuals from the Bass Collection and (2) to determine whether the revised methodology shows higher rates of accuracy than the original methodology (J Forensic Sci, 31, 51(2): 213-229). Scores obtained by both methodologies were analyzed via a Bayesian statistical program (IDADE2) that estimates a relative likelihood distribution for the target individuals, produces age-at-death estimates, and provides 95% confidence intervals. Even though the revised method was developed using a Western European collection, the results demonstrate that it is also applicable to North American samples with reasonable accuracy results, i.e., an average absolute error of 7.19 years in males and 9.65 years in females. However, accuracy in females is significantly lower than in males, likely due to their higher morphological variability associated with different factors other than age. The significantly better performance of the revised methodology compared with the original is also been confirmed by the current findings from this North American sample, supporting the renewed system as a better aging methodology. Although work on further populations is needed, previously and current results should encourage professionals to include the acetabular method in forensic and archaeological laboratories routines.
最近，San-Millán等人发表了一种新的髋臼老化方法（《国际法律医学杂志》，47卷，131期：501 - 525页），该方法完善了不同人群中与髋臼窝老化相关的变量。由于其新颖性，除了最初开发和测试所使用的人群外，该方法尚未在其他任何人群中进行检验。因此，本研究的主要目标有两个：（1）在一个由来自巴斯收藏的826名白人（456名男性和370名女性）组成的北美样本中评估SanMillán-Rissech方法的准确性；（2）确定修订后的方法是否比原始方法具有更高的准确率（《法医科学杂志》，31卷，51(2)期：213 - 229页）。通过一个贝叶斯统计程序（IDADE2）对两种方法获得的分数进行分析，该程序估计目标个体的相对似然分布，生成死亡年龄估计值，并提供95%的置信区间。尽管修订后的方法是使用西欧样本开发的，但结果表明它也适用于北美样本，且准确率结果合理，即男性的平均绝对误差为7.19岁，女性为9.65岁。然而，女性的准确率明显低于男性，这可能是由于她们除年龄外还与不同因素相关的更高形态变异性。来自这个北美样本的当前研究结果也证实了修订后的方法与原始方法相比表现明显更好，支持了这种新系统作为一种更好的老化方法。尽管还需要对更多人群进行研究，但之前和当前的结果应鼓励专业人员将髋臼方法纳入法医和考古实验室的常规操作中。
