Calce Stephanie E, Rogers Tracy L
Department of Anthropology, University of Victoria, P.O. Box 3050, STN CSC, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada, V8W 3P5.
J Forensic Sci. 2011 Mar;56(2):302-11. doi: 10.1111/j.1556-4029.2011.01700.x. Epub 2011 Feb 9.
This study evaluates the accuracy and precision of a skeletal age estimation method, using the acetabulum of 100 male ossa coxae from the Grant Collection (GRO) at the University of Toronto, Canada. Age at death was obtained using Bayesian inference and a computational application (IDADE2) that requires a reference population, close in geographic and temporal distribution to the target case, to calibrate age ranges from scores generated by the technique. The inaccuracy of this method is 8 years. The direction of bias indicates the acetabulum technique tends to underestimate age. The categories 46-65 and 76-90 years exhibit the smallest inaccuracy (0.2), suggesting that this method may be appropriate for individuals over 40 years. Eighty-three percent of age estimates were ±12 years of known age; 79% were ±10 years of known age; and 62% were ±5 years of known age. Identifying a suitable reference population is the most significant limitation of this technique for forensic applications.
本研究使用来自加拿大多伦多大学格兰特收藏馆(GRO)的100例男性髋骨的髋臼,评估一种骨骼年龄估计方法的准确性和精密度。死亡年龄通过贝叶斯推理和一种计算应用程序(IDADE2)获得,该程序需要一个在地理和时间分布上与目标案例相近的参考人群,以校准该技术产生的分数所对应的年龄范围。该方法的误差为8岁。偏差方向表明髋臼技术往往会低估年龄。46 - 65岁和76 - 90岁年龄组的误差最小(0.2),这表明该方法可能适用于40岁以上的个体。83%的年龄估计值与已知年龄相差±12岁;79%相差±10岁;62%相差±5岁。对于法医应用而言,确定合适的参考人群是该技术最显著的局限性。