Mapping Nairobi's dairy food system: An essential analysis for policy, industry and research.

Demand for dairy products in sub-Saharan Africa, is expected to triple by 2050, while limited increase in supply is predicted. This poses significant food security risk to low income households. Understanding how the dairy food system operates is essential to identify mitigation measures to food insecurity impact. This study aims to determine the structure and functionality of Nairobi's dairy system using a value chain mapping approach. Primary data were gathered through focus group discussions and key informant interviews with dairy value chain stakeholders in Nairobi to obtain qualitative information on people and products in the chains while describing their interactions and flows. Qualitative thematic analysis combined with flowcharts created by participants enabled identification of key food system segments and the development of chain profiles (or flow-diagrams) which together form Nairobi's dairy system. Seven chain profiles forming Nairobi's dairy value chain were identified. These were found to be dominated by small-scale individuals who operate largely independently. Our profiles for the urban and peri-urban farming systems were structurally similar in their downstream networks, obtaining inputs from similar sources. Upstream, the urban systems were shorter, supplying mostly to immediate neighbours or based on own consumption, while the peri urban systems supplied to a wider network and showed some affiliations to producers' associations. Two distinct profiles characterize the milk flow from traders belonging either to a Dairy Traders Association (DTA) or those not belonging to this association (non-DTA). DTA traders sell mainly to fixed retailers and non-DTA traders to mobile retailers (hawkers or roadside vendors). Profiles associated with medium and large cooperatives were driven by networks of collection centres, but with medium-sized cooperatives selling half of their production to large processing companies, and large cooperatives only to fixed retailers. Large processing companies' profiles indicated distribution of high volumes and value addition processing. They reported strategic milk collection arrangements with suppliers on long, medium - or short - term contracts and with well-established product distribution channels. We have identified numerous inter-linkages across dairy chain profiles in Nairobi's complex system, demonstrating significant interdependency among the stakeholders. Therefore, enhancing the system's efficiency requires a holistic, system-wide approach and any policy interventions should consider every segment of the value chain. This study provides a methodological approach for organizations and policy makers to understand and address structural and functional vulnerabilities within food systems more broadly. The insights from this study are relevant to other rapidly growing cities in the region.