Shah Denis A, Dillard Helene R
Department of Plant Pathology, New York State Agricultural Experiment Station, 630 W. North St., Geneva 14456.
Plant Dis. 2006 Nov;90(11):1413-1418. doi: 10.1094/PD-90-1413.
Data sets meeting established criteria were included in a meta-analysis of the relationship between percent common rust severity and percent relative yield loss in sweet corn (processing: 20 data sets; fresh market: 14 data sets). The slope of the linear, zero intercept relationship was estimated from each data set. Overall slopes and their respective 95% confidence intervals for the processing and fresh market situations were estimated by a random effects meta-analysis. Results indicated that for processing sweet corn, every 10% increase in rust severity reduced yield by 2.4 to 7.0%; the corresponding reduction for fresh market sweet corn was between 3.0 and 6.2%. A meta-regression analysis did not identify any factors that could account for the observed variability between data sets. An expression was then obtained for Δ, the reduction in rust severity a single strobilurin fungicide spray ought to cause for the cost of the treatment to be offset by the value of the resulting yield improvement. The empirical distribution of Δwas derived by stochastic simulation, which showed that fungicide usage could be cost effective 90% of the time when rust severity is reduced by 12% in processing sweet corn and by 5% in fresh market sweet corn.
符合既定标准的数据集被纳入一项关于甜玉米普通锈病严重程度百分比与相对产量损失百分比之间关系的荟萃分析(加工用甜玉米:20个数据集;鲜食市场用甜玉米:14个数据集)。从每个数据集中估计线性、零截距关系的斜率。通过随机效应荟萃分析估计加工用和鲜食市场用甜玉米的总体斜率及其各自的95%置信区间。结果表明,对于加工用甜玉米,锈病严重程度每增加10%,产量降低2.4%至7.0%;鲜食市场用甜玉米相应的产量降低幅度为3.0%至6.2%。荟萃回归分析未发现任何因素可以解释数据集中观察到的变异性。然后得出了一个关于Δ的表达式,即单次喷施甲氧基丙烯酸酯类杀菌剂应使锈病严重程度降低的幅度,以使处理成本被由此带来的产量提高所抵消。通过随机模拟得出了Δ的经验分布,结果表明,当加工用甜玉米锈病严重程度降低12%、鲜食市场用甜玉米锈病严重程度降低5%时,90%的情况下使用杀菌剂具有成本效益。