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预测福尼尔坏疽的死亡率并验证福尼尔坏疽严重程度指数:我们在印度一家三级护理中心对50例患者的经验。

Predicting Mortality in Fournier Gangrene and Validating the Fournier Gangrene Severity Index: Our Experience with 50 Patients in a Tertiary Care Center in India.

作者信息

Arora Amandeep, Rege Sameer, Surpam Shrinivas, Gothwal Kalyansing, Narwade Anurag

机构信息

Department of General Surgery, Seth G S Medical College and KEM Hospital, Mumbai, India.

Department of General Surgery, Seth G S Medical College and KEM Hospital, Mumbai, India,

出版信息

Urol Int. 2019;102(3):311-318. doi: 10.1159/000495144. Epub 2019 Feb 21.

Abstract

OBJECTIVE

To identify factors that dictate morbidity and mortality in patients with Fournier's Gangrene and validate the Fournier gangrene severity index (FGSI).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We prospectively studied 50 patients with FG from January 2016 to December 2016 pertaining to their presenting signs, intraoperative findings, and postoperative wound management and outcome. We also checked the power of the FGSI to predict the outcome of the patients in terms of mortality. Receiver operating characteristic curve was used to determine the optimum cutoff of FGSI score to predict mortality. Principle component analysis was performed to check for the possibility of reduction in the number of factors included in the FGSI.

RESULTS

The mean age at presentation was 53 ± 16 years with a mortality rate of 24%. Factors associated with mortality were increasing age (p = 0.0001), presence of diabetes (p = 0.002), bed-ridden status (p = 0.001), alcoholic liver disease (p = 0.005), altered international normalized ratio (p > 0.005), late presentation (p = 0.001), and a FGSI score of > 9 at admission (p = 0.004). The mean FGSI score among survivors was 4.39 ± 3.80 compared to 14.22 ± 3.93 among those who died. The area under the curve FGSI score to predict mortality at a cutoff of 9 was 0.961 (95% CI 0.910-1.000).

CONCLUSION

Increasing age, diabetes, alcoholic liver disease, bed-ridden status, delayed hospital presentation, and an altered international normalized ratio at presentation are associated with higher mortality in FG. The FGSI at admission should be used to identify patients with serious prognosis requiring intensive care.

摘要

目的

确定决定福尼尔坏疽患者发病率和死亡率的因素,并验证福尼尔坏疽严重程度指数(FGSI)。

材料与方法

我们对2016年1月至2016年12月期间的50例福尼尔坏疽患者进行了前瞻性研究,内容包括他们的临床表现、术中发现、术后伤口处理及结果。我们还检验了FGSI预测患者死亡率结局的能力。采用受试者工作特征曲线来确定预测死亡率的FGSI评分最佳临界值。进行主成分分析以检验减少FGSI中所含因素数量的可能性。

结果

就诊时的平均年龄为53±16岁,死亡率为24%。与死亡率相关的因素包括年龄增加(p = 0.0001)、糖尿病(p = 0.002)、卧床状态(p = 0.001)、酒精性肝病(p = 0.005)、国际标准化比值改变(p>0.005)、就诊延迟(p = 0.001)以及入院时FGSI评分>9(p = 0.004)。幸存者的平均FGSI评分为4.39±3.80,而死亡者为14.22±3.93。FGSI评分预测死亡率的曲线下面积在临界值为9时为0.961(95%可信区间0.910 - 1.000)。

结论

年龄增加、糖尿病、酒精性肝病、卧床状态、就诊延迟以及就诊时国际标准化比值改变与福尼尔坏疽患者较高的死亡率相关。入院时的FGSI应用于识别预后严重需要重症监护的患者。

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