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海冰初始化在威德尔海气候可预测性中的作用。

Role of sea-ice initialization in climate predictability over the Weddell Sea.

作者信息

Morioka Yushi, Doi Takeshi, Iovino Doroteaciro, Masina Simona, Behera Swadhin K

机构信息

Application Laboratory, JAMSTEC, Yokohama, Japan.

Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna, Italy.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2019 Feb 25;9(1):2457. doi: 10.1038/s41598-019-39421-w.

DOI:10.1038/s41598-019-39421-w
PMID:30799436
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6387978/
Abstract

Potential impact of sea-ice initialization on the interannual climate predictability over the Weddell Sea is investigated using a coupled general circulation model. Climate variability in the Weddell Sea is generally believed to have association with remote forcing such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Southern Annual Mode. However, sea-ice variability in the Weddell Sea has been recently suggested to play additional roles in modulating local atmospheric variability through changes in surface air temperature and near-surface baroclinicity. Reforecast experiments from September 1st, in which the model's sea-surface temperature (SST) and sea-ice concentration (SIC) are initialized with observations using nudging schemes, show improvements in predicting the observed SIC anomalies in the Weddell Sea up to four months ahead, compared to the other experiments in which only the model's SST is initialized. During austral spring (Oct-Dec) of lower-than-normal sea-ice years in the Weddell Sea, reforecast experiments with the SST and SIC initializations reasonably predict high surface air temperature anomalies in the Weddell Sea and high sea-level pressure anomalies over the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean. These results suggest that accurate initialization of sea-ice conditions during austral winter is necessary for skillful prediction of climate variability over the Weddell Sea during austral spring.

摘要

利用耦合大气环流模式研究了海冰初始化对威德尔海年际气候可预测性的潜在影响。一般认为，威德尔海的气候变化与诸如厄尔尼诺 - 南方涛动和南方年模态等遥相关强迫有关。然而，最近有人提出，威德尔海的海冰变化通过地表气温和近地表斜压性的变化，在调节当地大气变化方面发挥了额外作用。从9月1日开始的再预报实验中，利用 nudging 方案用观测数据初始化了模式的海表面温度（SST）和海冰浓度（SIC），与仅初始化模式SST的其他实验相比，在提前四个月预测威德尔海观测到的SIC异常方面有了改进。在威德尔海海冰年低于正常水平的南半球春季（10月至12月），用SST和SIC初始化的再预报实验合理地预测了威德尔海的高地表气温异常以及南大洋大西洋扇区的高海平面气压异常。这些结果表明，南半球冬季海冰条件的准确初始化对于南半球春季威德尔海气候变化的有效预测是必要的。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/066e/6387978/fcbc573daa4e/41598_2019_39421_Fig8_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/066e/6387978/8441a38b6b58/41598_2019_39421_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/066e/6387978/9afbdf59cc0b/41598_2019_39421_Fig2_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/066e/6387978/40ae28ec8174/41598_2019_39421_Fig3_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/066e/6387978/c3b826d5dc81/41598_2019_39421_Fig4_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/066e/6387978/0149379636b4/41598_2019_39421_Fig5_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/066e/6387978/20cdfcfc222c/41598_2019_39421_Fig6_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/066e/6387978/95538319eb81/41598_2019_39421_Fig7_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/066e/6387978/fcbc573daa4e/41598_2019_39421_Fig8_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/066e/6387978/8441a38b6b58/41598_2019_39421_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/066e/6387978/9afbdf59cc0b/41598_2019_39421_Fig2_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/066e/6387978/40ae28ec8174/41598_2019_39421_Fig3_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/066e/6387978/c3b826d5dc81/41598_2019_39421_Fig4_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/066e/6387978/0149379636b4/41598_2019_39421_Fig5_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/066e/6387978/20cdfcfc222c/41598_2019_39421_Fig6_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/066e/6387978/95538319eb81/41598_2019_39421_Fig7_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/066e/6387978/fcbc573daa4e/41598_2019_39421_Fig8_HTML.jpg

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引用本文的文献

1
Summertime sea-ice prediction in the Weddell Sea improved by sea-ice thickness initialization.通过海冰厚度初始化改进了威德尔海夏季海冰预测。
Sci Rep. 2021 Jun 9;11(1):11475. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-91042-4.

本文引用的文献

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Increase of the Antarctic Sea Ice Extent is highly significant only in the Ross Sea.南极海冰范围的增加在罗斯海具有重要意义。
Sci Rep. 2017 Jan 24;7:41096. doi: 10.1038/srep41096.