Tulloch Vivitskaia J D, Plagányi Éva E, Brown Christopher, Richardson Anthony J, Matear Richard
ARC Centre of Excellence in Environmental Decisions, University of Queensland, St Lucia, Brisbane, QLD, Australia.
CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Queensland BioSciences Precinct (QBP), St Lucia, Brisbane, QLD, Australia.
Glob Chang Biol. 2019 Apr;25(4):1263-1281. doi: 10.1111/gcb.14573. Epub 2019 Feb 26.
Historical harvesting pushed many whale species to the brink of extinction. Although most Southern Hemisphere populations are slowly recovering, the influence of future climate change on their recovery remains unknown. We investigate the impacts of two anthropogenic pressures-historical commercial whaling and future climate change-on populations of baleen whales (blue, fin, humpback, Antarctic minke, southern right) and their prey (krill and copepods) in the Southern Ocean. We use a climate-biological coupled "Model of Intermediate Complexity for Ecosystem Assessments" (MICE) that links krill and whale population dynamics with climate change drivers, including changes in ocean temperature, primary productivity and sea ice. Models predict negative future impacts of climate change on krill and all whale species, although the magnitude of impacts on whales differs among populations. Despite initial recovery from historical whaling, models predict concerning declines under climate change, even local extinctions by 2100, for Pacific populations of blue, fin and southern right whales, and Atlantic/Indian fin and humpback whales. Predicted declines were a consequence of reduced prey (copepods/krill) from warming and increasing interspecific competition between whale species. We model whale population recovery under an alternative scenario whereby whales adapt their migratory patterns to accommodate changing sea ice in the Antarctic and a shifting prey base. Plasticity in range size and migration was predicted to improve recovery for ice-associated blue and minke whales. Our study highlights the need for ongoing protection to help depleted whale populations recover, as well as local management to ensure the krill prey base remains viable, but this may have limited success without immediate action to reduce emissions.
历史上的捕鲸活动使许多鲸鱼物种濒临灭绝。尽管大多数南半球的鲸鱼种群正在缓慢恢复，但未来气候变化对它们恢复的影响仍不明朗。我们研究了两种人为压力——历史上的商业捕鲸活动和未来的气候变化——对南大洋须鲸（蓝鲸、长须鲸、座头鲸、南极小须鲸、南露脊鲸）及其猎物（磷虾和桡足类）种群的影响。我们使用了一个气候 - 生物耦合的“生态系统评估中等复杂性模型”（MICE），该模型将磷虾和鲸鱼的种群动态与气候变化驱动因素联系起来，包括海洋温度、初级生产力和海冰的变化。模型预测，气候变化将对磷虾和所有鲸鱼物种产生负面的未来影响，尽管不同种群的鲸鱼受到的影响程度有所不同。尽管从历史捕鲸活动中初步恢复，但模型预测，在气候变化的情况下，太平洋的蓝鲸、长须鲸和南露脊鲸种群，以及大西洋/印度洋的长须鲸和座头鲸种群将出现令人担忧的数量下降，甚至到2100年可能会局部灭绝。预测的数量下降是由于变暖导致猎物（桡足类/磷虾）减少以及鲸鱼物种之间种间竞争加剧所致。我们模拟了一种替代情景下鲸鱼种群的恢复情况，即鲸鱼调整其洄游模式以适应南极海冰变化和猎物基础的转移。预计活动范围大小和洄游的可塑性将改善与冰相关的蓝鲸和小须鲸的恢复情况。我们的研究强调，需要持续的保护措施来帮助数量减少的鲸鱼种群恢复，以及进行地方管理以确保磷虾猎物基础保持 viable，但如果不立即采取行动减少排放，这可能收效有限。
原文中“viable”未翻译完整，根据语境推测这里应是“保持可维持生存的状态”之类意思，翻译时按原文照抄了，完整准确的翻译可能需要更多上下文信息。
