Cheeseman Ted, Barlow Jay, Acebes Jo Marie, Audley Katherina, Bejder Lars, Birdsall Caitlin, Bracamontes Olga Solis, Bradford Amanda L, Byington Josie, Calambokidis John, Cartwright Rachel, Cedarleaf Jen, Chavez Andrea Jacqueline García, Currie Jens, De Castro Rouenne Camille, De Weerdt Joëlle, Doe Nicole, Doniol-Valcroze Thomas, Dracott Karina, Filatova Olga, Finn Rachel, Flynn Kiirsten R, Ford John, Frisch-Jordán Astrid, Gabriele Chris, Goodwin Beth, Hayslip Craig, Hildering Jackie, Hill Marie C, Jacobsen Jeff K, Jiménez-López M Esther, Jones Meagan, Kobayashi Nozomi, Lammers Marc, Lyman Edward, Malleson Mark, Mamaev Evgeny, Loustalot Pamela Martínez, Masterman Annie, Matkin Craig O, McMillan Christie, Moore Jeff, Moran John, Neilson Janet L, Newell Hayley, Okabe Haruna, Olio Marilia, Ortega-Ortiz Christian D, Pack Adam A, Palacios Daniel M, Pearson Heidi, Quintana-Rizzo Ester, Barragán Raul Ramírez, Ransome Nicola, Rosales-Nanduca Hiram, Sharpe Fred, Shaw Tasli, Southerland Ken, Stack Stephanie, Staniland Iain, Straley Janice, Szabo Andrew, Teerlink Suzie, Titova Olga, Urban-Ramirez Jorge, van Aswegen Martin, Vinicius Marcel, von Ziegesar Olga, Witteveen Briana, Wray Janie, Yano Kymberly, Yegin Igor, Zwiefelhofer Denny, Clapham Phil
Marine Ecology Research Centre, Southern Cross University, Lismore, New South Wales, Australia.
Happywhale, Santa Cruz, CA, USA.
R Soc Open Sci. 2024 Feb 28;11(2):231462. doi: 10.1098/rsos.231462. eCollection 2024 Feb.
For the 40 years after the end of commercial whaling in 1976, humpback whale populations in the North Pacific Ocean exhibited a prolonged period of recovery. Using mark-recapture methods on the largest individual photo-identification dataset ever assembled for a cetacean, we estimated annual ocean-basin-wide abundance for the species from 2002 through 2021. Trends in annual estimates describe strong post-whaling era population recovery from 16 875 (± 5955) in 2002 to a peak abundance estimate of 33 488 (± 4455) in 2012. An apparent 20% decline from 2012 to 2021, 33 488 (± 4455) to 26 662 (± 4192), suggests the population abruptly reached carrying capacity due to loss of prey resources. This was particularly evident for humpback whales wintering in Hawai'i, where, by 2021, estimated abundance had declined by 34% from a peak in 2013, down to abundance levels previously seen in 2006, and contrasted to an absence of decline in Mainland Mexico breeding humpbacks. The strongest marine heatwave recorded globally to date during the 2014-2016 period appeared to have altered the course of species recovery, with enduring effects. Extending this time series will allow humpback whales to serve as an indicator species for the ecosystem in the face of a changing climate.
在1976年商业捕鲸活动结束后的40年里，北太平洋的座头鲸种群经历了漫长的恢复期。我们利用有史以来为鲸类动物收集的最大的个体照片识别数据集，采用标记重捕法，估算了2002年至2021年该物种在整个大洋盆地的年度丰度。年度估算趋势表明，捕鲸时代后种群数量强劲恢复，从2002年的16875头（±5955头）增长到2012年的最高丰度估算值33488头（±4455头）。从2012年到2021年，数量明显下降了20%，从33488头（±4455头）降至26662头（±4192头），这表明由于猎物资源的丧失，种群数量突然达到了承载能力。这在夏威夷越冬的座头鲸身上尤为明显，到2021年，估计数量比2013年的峰值下降了34%，降至2006年以前的水平，这与墨西哥大陆繁殖的座头鲸数量没有下降形成了对比。2014 - 2016年期间全球记录到的最强海洋热浪似乎改变了物种恢复的进程，并产生了持久影响。延长这个时间序列将使座头鲸能够作为面对气候变化的生态系统的指示物种。
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