Weiss Martin, Zerfass Andreas, Helmers Eckard
European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Energy, Transport and Climate, Sustainable Transport Unit, via Fermi 2749, 21027, Ispra, Italy.
University of Applied Sciences Trier, Environmental Campus Birkenfeld, Environmental Planning and Technology Department, P.O. Box 1380, 55761, Birkenfeld, Germany.
J Clean Prod. 2019 Mar 1;212:1478-1489. doi: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.12.019.
This article presents experience curves and cost-benefit analyses for electric and plug-in hybrid cars sold in Germany. We find that between 2010 and 2016, the prices and price differentials relative to conventional cars declined at learning rates of 23 ± 2% and 32 ± 2% for electric cars and 6 ± 1% and 37 ± 2% for plug-in hybrids. If trends persist, price beak-even with conventional cars may be reached after another 7 ± 1 million electric cars and 5 ± 1 million plug-in hybrids are produced. The user costs of electric and plug-in hybrid cars relative to their conventional counterparts are declining annually by 14% and 26%. Also the costs for mitigating CO and air pollutant emissions through the deployment of electrified cars tend to decline. However, at current levels, NO and particle emissions are still mitigated at lower costs by state-of-the-art after-treatment systems than through the electrification of powertrains. Overall, the observation of robust technological learning suggests policy makers should focus their support on non-cost market barriers for the electrification of road transport, addressing specifically the availability of recharging infrastructure.
本文介绍了德国销售的电动汽车和插电式混合动力汽车的经验曲线及成本效益分析。我们发现，在2010年至2016年期间，相对于传统汽车，电动汽车的价格及价格差以23±2%的学习率下降，插电式混合动力汽车则为6±1%；相对于传统汽车，电动汽车的价格差及插电式混合动力汽车的价格差分别以32±2%和37±2%的学习率下降。如果趋势持续下去，在再生产7±100万辆电动汽车和5±100万辆插电式混合动力汽车之后，其价格可能与传统汽车达到收支平衡。电动汽车和插电式混合动力汽车相对于传统汽车的用户成本每年分别下降14%和26%。此外，通过部署电动化汽车来减少一氧化碳和空气污染物排放的成本也趋于下降。然而，在当前水平下，与通过动力系统电动化相比，采用最先进的后处理系统来减少氮氧化物和颗粒物排放的成本仍然更低。总体而言，对强劲技术学习的观察表明，政策制定者应将支持重点放在道路运输电动化的非成本市场障碍上，尤其要解决充电基础设施的可用性问题。
