Department of Sociology, New York University, Puck Building, Room 4102, 295 Lafayette Street, New York, NY, 10012, USA.
Department of Sociology, Criminology & Anthropology, University of Wisconsin-Whitewater, Laurentide Hall, Room 2125, 800 West Main Street, Whitewater, WI, 53190, USA.
Demography. 2019 Apr;56(2):645-663. doi: 10.1007/s13524-019-00768-4.
Homicide is a leading cause of death for young people in the United States aged 15-34, but it has a disproportionate impact on one subset of the population: African American males. The national decline in homicide mortality that occurred from 1991 to 2014 thus provides an opportunity to generate evidence on a unique question-How do population health and health inequality change when the prevalence of one of the leading causes of death is cut in half? In this article, we estimate the impact of the decline in homicide mortality on life expectancy at birth as well as years of potential life lost for African American and white males and females, respectively. Estimates are generated using national mortality data by age, gender, race, and education level. Counterfactual estimates are constructed under the assumption of no change in mortality due to homicide from 1991 (the year when the national homicide rate reached its latest peak) to 2014 (the year when the homicide rate reached its trough). We estimate that the decline in homicides led to a 0.80-year increase in life expectancy at birth for African American males, and reduced years of potential life lost by 1,156 years for every 100,000 African American males. Results suggest that the drop in homicide represents a public health breakthrough for African American males, accounting for 17 % of the reduction in the life expectancy gap between white and African American males.
在美国,15-34 岁的年轻人中,凶杀是导致死亡的主要原因,但它对一个特定人群的影响尤其大:非裔美国男性。因此,1991 年至 2014 年期间全国凶杀死亡率的下降为解决一个独特的问题提供了机会,即当导致死亡的主要原因之一的流行率减半时,人群健康和健康不平等会如何变化?在本文中,我们估计凶杀死亡率下降对非裔美国男性和白人男性及女性的出生预期寿命以及潜在生命损失年数的影响。这些估计是使用按年龄、性别、种族和教育程度分类的全国死亡率数据生成的。假设 1991 年(全国凶杀率达到最新峰值的年份)至 2014 年(凶杀率达到最低点的年份)期间,凶杀导致的死亡率没有变化,我们构建了反事实估计。我们估计,凶杀案的减少使非裔美国男性的出生预期寿命增加了 0.80 岁,每 10 万非裔美国男性减少了 1156 年的潜在生命损失年数。结果表明,凶杀案的减少对非裔美国男性来说是一个公共卫生的突破,占白人男性和非裔美国男性预期寿命差距缩小的 17%。
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