Lou Jie, Cheng Jinjin, Li Yan, Zhang Chen, Xing Hui, Ruan Yuhua, Shao Yiming
Department of Mathematics, Shanghai University, 99 Shangda Road, Shanghai, China.
Henan Cable TV Network Group Co., Ltd, Zhengzhou Branch, Zhengzhou, China.
Infect Dis Model. 2018 Nov 1;3:293-300. doi: 10.1016/j.idm.2018.10.002. eCollection 2018.
As proposed in the UNAIDSs 2014 report, to end global AIDS epidemic by 2030, 90% of people living with HIV need to be diagnosed, 90% of the diagnosed need to receive antiretroviral therapy (ART), and 90% of those on treatment need to achieve viral suppression (90-90-90 strategy). The strategies focus on the reservoir. It controls HIV spreading by reducing infectiousness of HIV infected individuals via diagnosis and treatment. In this manuscript, we compared the effects of HIV/AIDS interventions that focus on different individuals in MSM population through a dynamics model. Our results showed that, the success or not of the "90-90-90" strategies depends on a very important factor: the infectious strength among individuals taking ART. Without highly effective HIV treatment, the "90-90-90" strategies are likely to fail. Therefore, we call for the combination of both primary prevention among the susceptible with the 90-90-90 strategy among the infected to curb the HIV epidemic in Chinese MSM.
正如联合国艾滋病规划署2014年报告中所提议的，为了在2030年终结全球艾滋病流行，90%的艾滋病毒感染者需要得到诊断，90%的已诊断感染者需要接受抗逆转录病毒治疗（ART），并且90%的接受治疗者需要实现病毒抑制（90-90-90策略）。这些策略聚焦于病毒储存库。它通过诊断和治疗降低艾滋病毒感染者的传染性来控制艾滋病毒传播。在本论文中，我们通过一个动力学模型比较了针对男男性行为人群中不同个体的艾滋病毒/艾滋病干预措施的效果。我们的结果表明，“90-90-90”策略的成败取决于一个非常重要的因素：接受抗逆转录病毒治疗者之间的传染强度。如果没有高效的艾滋病毒治疗，“90-90-90”策略很可能会失败。因此，我们呼吁在中国男男性行为人群中，将针对易感人群的一级预防与针对感染者的90-90-90策略相结合，以遏制艾滋病毒流行。
