School of Social Work, University Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, IL.
Brown School of Social Work, Washington University in St. Louis, MO.
J Am Acad Child Adolesc Psychiatry. 2019 Dec;58(12):1175-1183. doi: 10.1016/j.jaac.2019.02.015. Epub 2019 Mar 6.
We estimated cumulative probabilities of onset and recurrences of child maltreatment reports from birth to age 11 years. Estimates were provided overall and within subcategories of race/ethnicity, sex, and subtype.
We developed synthetic life tables from national Child Protective Services records (2003-2016) and Census data. Although 28 states and the District of Columbia were used for estimates due to data quality, sensitivity analyses suggest that our estimates may be very similar to national estimates, with very minor underestimation.
The probability of having at least "X-number" of maltreatment reports by age 12 years was 32.41% for 1 report, 13.71% for 2 reports, 7.57% for 3 reports, 4.50% for reports, 2.80% for 5 reports, and 1.79% for 6 reports. Children with more prior reports were more likely to have future reports. The risk increased from 42.31% when having 1 prior report to 64.01% when having 5 prior reports. Asian/Pacific Islanders showed exceptionally lower onset and recurring rates than others. Individuals of nonwhite ethnicity (African American/black, Native American, and Hispanic) had higher onset rates than white individuals. Once initially reported, however, white persons had generally slightly higher rates of recurrence than nonwhite persons. Neglect was the most frequent subtype in both onset and recurring reports. No practical difference existed in overall onset and recurring rates by sex.
Many United States children experience reported maltreatment, and many experience repeated or chronic maltreatment. The increased risk of recurring with more prior reports suggests preventive efforts for serially reported children. The large racial disparity at the onset stage disappears at the recurring stages, suggesting interventions prior to the onset.
我们估计了从出生到 11 岁儿童虐待报告的累积发病和复发概率。这些估计是在种族/民族、性别和亚型的各个亚组中提供的。
我们从国家儿童保护服务记录（2003-2016 年）和人口普查数据中制定了综合生命表。尽管由于数据质量的原因，有 28 个州和哥伦比亚特区被用于估计，但敏感性分析表明，我们的估计可能与全国估计非常相似，只是略有低估。
到 12 岁时，至少有“X 次”虐待报告的儿童的概率为 1 次报告为 32.41%，2 次报告为 13.71%，3 次报告为 7.57%，4 次报告为 4.50%，5 次报告为 2.80%，6 次报告为 1.79%。有更多先前报告的儿童更有可能有未来的报告。风险从有 1 个先前报告时的 42.31%增加到有 5 个先前报告时的 64.01%。亚洲/太平洋岛民的发病和复发率明显低于其他人群。非白种人（非裔美国人/黑人、美国原住民和西班牙裔）的发病率高于白人。然而，一旦最初报告，白人再次报告的比率通常略高于非白人。忽视是发病和复发报告中最常见的亚型。性别的总体发病和复发率没有明显差异。
许多美国儿童经历过虐待报告，许多儿童经历过重复或慢性虐待。随着更多先前报告的风险增加，提示对连续报告的儿童进行预防干预。在发病阶段，种族间存在较大差异，但在复发阶段，这种差异消失，提示在发病前进行干预。
