School of Management, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, China; Key Laboratory of Process Optimization and Intelligent Decision-making, Ministry of Education, Hefei 230009, China.
Energy Studies Institute, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore.
Sci Total Environ. 2019 Jun 10;668:432-442. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.02.406. Epub 2019 Mar 1.
To address the unprecedented increase in China's CO emissions over the past decades, the Chinese government has implemented many policies that are aimed at reducing carbon intensity. Applying the LMDI method, this study conducts a decomposition analysis of the drivers influencing China's CO emissions by examining the details of 41 industry sub-sectors during 2000-2016; further, it predicts the carbon intensity reduction potential in 2020 and 2030 based on various official policies and documents. We conclude that energy intensity was the primary indicator that reduced CO emissions, whereas the effects of carbon intensity, energy mix, and industrial structure were relatively minor. During the study period, the effect of industrial structure optimization on the change in CO emissions shifted from the promotion of emissions to their suppression, with the inhibiting influence becoming greater over time. Finally, scenario analysis indicated that CO intensity would decrease 21.5% by 2020 compared to the 2015 level, and the reduction target of 65% would be achieved fully in 2030 in the outlook scenario. Energy intensity is the largest contributor to the decrease in CO emissions during 2016-2020, whereas industrial structure optimization shows the greatest potential for environmental improvement during 2020-2030. This paper concludes that more stringent policies are essential to reducing CO emissions in the near future.
为了解决过去几十年来中国 CO2 排放前所未有的增长问题，中国政府实施了许多旨在降低碳强度的政策。本研究应用 LMDI 方法，通过考察 2000-2016 年 41 个工业细分行业的细节，对影响中国 CO2 排放的驱动因素进行了分解分析；进一步，根据各种官方政策和文件，预测了 2020 年和 2030 年的碳强度减排潜力。我们的结论是，能源强度是降低 CO2 排放的主要指标，而碳强度、能源结构和产业结构的影响相对较小。在研究期间，产业结构优化对 CO2 排放变化的影响从促进排放转变为抑制排放，随着时间的推移，抑制影响变得越来越大。最后，情景分析表明，与 2015 年相比，2020 年 CO 强度将降低 21.5%，在展望情景下，2030 年将完全实现 65%的减排目标。在 2016-2020 年期间，能源强度是 CO2 减排的最大贡献者，而在 2020-2030 年期间，产业结构优化显示出最大的环境改善潜力。本文的结论是，为了在不久的将来减少 CO2 排放，需要采取更严格的政策。
