School of Statistics, Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, Dalian, China.
School of Economics and Management, Chongqing Normal University, Chongqing 401331, China.
Sci Total Environ. 2020 Mar 1;706:135716. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135716. Epub 2019 Nov 27.
The carbon emissions from the construction industry have a significant impact on China's ability to successfully achieve its 2030 carbon peak target. The paper reports the feasibility of carbon peaks in China's construction industry based on two perspectives of factor decomposition and peak prediction. First, the Generalized Dividing Index Method factorizes the carbon emissions of China's construction industry from 2001 to 2017, and quantifies the contribution rate of each influent factor. Second, a baseline scenario, a low-carbon energy-saving scenario, and a technology breakthrough scenario are constructed. The carbon peaks of the China's construction industry in the three scenarios are then predicted for 2018-2045. The results are as follows: Firstly, GDP has the highest cumulative contribution rate to China's construction industry carbon emissions, and labor productivity and the output carbon intensity have a depressing effect on carbon emissions in that industry. The contribution rate of energy consumption to carbon emissions is always positive and grows year by year, whereas the energy intensity and carbon intensity of energy consumption have great potential for reducing carbon emissions in the future. The number of laborers and the per capita carbon emissions of the construction industry, the total labor force in each industry, and the proportion of the labor force in the construction industry have contributed to the carbon emissions of the construction industry. Second, under the baseline scenario, China's construction industry achieves carbon peaks in 2045, with a peak of 50,935,390 tons. Under the low-carbon energy-saving scenario, the carbon peak of the construction industry occurs in 2030, with a peak value of 31,685,580 tons. Under the technological breakthrough scenario, the carbon peak time of the construction industry is the earliest (2020), and the peak value is the lowest (29,008,400 tons). This study has important implications for the carbon peaks at the national macro level.
建筑行业的碳排放对中国成功实现 2030 年碳达峰目标的能力有重大影响。本文从因素分解和峰值预测两个角度，报告了中国建筑行业实现碳达峰的可行性。首先，利用广义分解指数法对中国建筑行业 2001 年至 2017 年的碳排放进行分解，量化各影响因素的贡献率。其次，构建基准情景、低碳节能情景和技术突破情景，并对中国建筑行业 2018 年至 2045 年的碳峰值进行预测。结果表明：（1）GDP 对中国建筑行业碳排放的累积贡献率最高，劳动生产率和产出碳强度对该行业的碳排放具有抑制作用。能源消耗对碳排放的贡献率始终为正且逐年增长，而能源强度和能源消耗碳强度在未来具有较大的减排潜力。建筑行业劳动力数量和人均碳排放量、各行业总劳动力数量以及建筑行业劳动力占比都对建筑行业碳排放做出了贡献。（2）在基准情景下，中国建筑行业在 2045 年达到碳峰值，峰值为 50935390 吨。在低碳节能情景下，建筑行业的碳峰值出现在 2030 年，峰值为 31685580 吨。在技术突破情景下，建筑行业的碳峰值最早（2020 年），峰值最低（29008400 吨）。本研究对国家宏观层面的碳达峰具有重要意义。
