Department of Occupational and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Hefei, 230032, Anhui Province, China.
Int J Biometeorol. 2019 Jun;63(6):723-734. doi: 10.1007/s00484-019-01687-0. Epub 2019 Mar 9.
Many studies have quantified the hospitalization risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD) caused by temperature, but the results of most studies are not consistent. In this study, we evaluate the effect of temperature on CVD hospitalizations. We use a quasi-Poisson regression with a distributed-lag nonlinear model (DLNM) to evaluate the effect of temperature on CVD hospitalizations between July 1, 2015, and October 31, 2017, in Hefei City, China. We found that the cold effect and heat effect of temperature can impact CVD hospital admissions. Compared with the 25th percentile of temperature (10.3 °C), the cumulative relative risk (RR) of extremely low temperature (first percentile of temperature, 0.075 °C) over lags 0-27 days was 0.616 (95% CI 0.423-0.891), and the cumulative RR of moderate low temperature (10th percentile of temperature, 5.16 °C) was 1.081 (95% CI 1.019-1.147) over lags 0-7 days. Compared with the 75th percentile of temperature (25.6 °C), the cumulative RR of extremely high temperature (99th percentile of temperature, 33.7 °C) was 1.078 (95% CI 0.752-1.547) over lags 0-27 days, and the cumulative RR of moderate-high temperature (90th percentile of temperature, 29.0 °C) was 1.015 (95% CI 0.988-1.043) over lag 0 day. In the subgroup, the < 65-year group and male were more susceptible to low temperature; however, the ≥ 65-year group and female were more vulnerable to high temperature. The high temperature's impact on CVD hospital admissions was found to be more obvious in female and the ≥ 65-year group compared to male and the < 65-year group. However, the < 65-year group and men are more sensitive to low temperature.
许多研究已经量化了温度引起的心血管疾病 (CVD) 的住院风险,但大多数研究的结果并不一致。在本研究中,我们评估了温度对 CVD 住院的影响。我们使用具有分布滞后非线性模型 (DLNM) 的拟泊松回归来评估 2015 年 7 月 1 日至 2017 年 10 月 31 日期间中国合肥市温度对 CVD 住院的影响。我们发现温度的冷效应和热效应都会影响 CVD 住院人数。与温度第 25 百分位数(10.3°C)相比,低温(温度第 1 百分位数,0.075°C)滞后 0-27 天的累积相对风险(RR)为 0.616(95%CI 0.423-0.891),低温(温度第 10 百分位数,5.16°C)滞后 0-7 天的累积 RR 为 1.081(95%CI 1.019-1.147)。与温度第 75 百分位数(25.6°C)相比,高温(温度第 99 百分位数,33.7°C)滞后 0-27 天的累积 RR 为 1.078(95%CI 0.752-1.547),高温(温度第 90 百分位数,29.0°C)滞后 0 天的累积 RR 为 1.015(95%CI 0.988-1.043)。在亚组中,<65 岁组和男性对低温更敏感;然而,≥65 岁组和女性对高温更敏感。与男性和<65 岁组相比,女性和≥65 岁组的高温对 CVD 住院的影响更为明显。然而,<65 岁组和男性对低温更敏感。