Jin Jianjian, Meng Xiaoxue, Wang Dongmei, Han Bing, Wu Tingting, Xie Jing, Zhang Qi, Xie Dingxiong, Zhang Zheng
The First Clinical Medical School, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China.
Heart Center, The First Hospital of Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China.
Heliyon. 2023 Jan 18;9(1):e12997. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e12997. eCollection 2023 Jan.
Cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains the leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide, ranking first in the global disease burden. Evidence on association between temperature and cardiovascular disease is insufficient and inconsistent in developing countries. In this study, a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) was used to determine the association between daily mean temperature and cardiovascular diseases (CVD) related admission in Lanzhou 2015-2019. We included 41,389 patients with CVD in this study. The relative risk (RR) of CVD admission increased significantly with temperature in lag 5-10 days, and we found harvesting effect of temperature in the study, shown as decreased RR in lag 15-30 days. The maximum RR was 1.15 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.03-1.30), corresponding to 24 °C. Both cold and heat effects of temperature could impact the CVD admission. Compared with the 25th percentile of temperature (2 °C), the cumulative relative risk (cumRR) of extreme cold (-5 °C, the 2.5th percentile of the temperature) was 0.69 (95% CI: 0.51-0.94) in lag 0-14, whereas the cumRR of moderate cold (-2 °C, the 10th percentile) was 0.83 (95% CI:0.71-0.97). Compared with the 75th percentile of temperature (20-°C), the cumRR of extreme heat (27 °C, the 97.5th percentile) was 0.93 (95% CI: 0.78-1.10) in lag 0, whereas the cumRR of moderate heat (24 °C, the 90th percentile) was 1.01 (95% CI: 0.94-1.08). In the stratified analysis, cold decreased RR significantly in female and ≥65 years, whereas heat increased it more obviously in male and ≥65 years. Ambient temperature and CVD admissions were positively associated, with the harvesting effect. Our findings demonstrate the adaption of residents in Lanzhou to cold temperature. Public and environmental policies and measures aimed at moderate heat may minimize CVD burden effectively.
心血管疾病(CVD)仍然是全球发病和死亡的主要原因,在全球疾病负担中排名第一。在发展中国家,关于温度与心血管疾病之间关联的证据不足且不一致。在本研究中,采用分布滞后非线性模型(DLNM)来确定2015 - 2019年兰州日平均温度与心血管疾病(CVD)相关住院之间的关联。本研究纳入了41389例CVD患者。CVD住院的相对风险(RR)在滞后5 - 10天随温度显著增加,并且我们在研究中发现了温度的收获效应,表现为滞后15 - 30天RR降低。最大RR为1.15(95%置信区间[CI]:1.03 - 1.30),对应温度为24℃。温度的寒冷和炎热效应均可影响CVD住院。与温度的第25百分位数(2℃)相比,极端寒冷(-5℃,温度的第2.5百分位数)在滞后0 - 14天的累积相对风险(cumRR)为0.69(95% CI:0.51 - 0.94),而中度寒冷(-2℃,第10百分位数)的cumRR为0.83(95% CI:0.71 - 0.97)。与温度的第75百分位数(20℃)相比,极端炎热(27℃,第97.5百分位数)在滞后0天的cumRR为0.93(95% CI:0.78 - 1.10),而中度炎热(24℃,第90百分位数)的cumRR为1.01(95% CI:0.94 - 1.08)。在分层分析中,寒冷使女性和≥65岁人群的RR显著降低,而炎热使男性和≥65岁人群的RR升高更为明显。环境温度与CVD住院呈正相关,并存在收获效应。我们的研究结果表明兰州居民对寒冷温度具有适应性。针对中度炎热的公共和环境政策及措施可能有效降低CVD负担。