Alfredsson L, von Arbin M, de Faire U
Br Med J (Clin Res Ed). 1986 May 17;292(6531):1299-303. doi: 10.1136/bmj.292.6531.1299.
To study trends in the incidence of and mortality from stroke in Stockholm during 1974-81 all cases (n = 56566) of stroke in patients aged over 40 were identified from the Swedish Cause of Death Register and the Inpatient Care Register. Information on the population at risk was obtained from the civil registration system. A multiplicative model was used to control for changes in the distribution of age during the study. Mortality from stroke decreased annually throughout the study by a mean of 2.3% for men and 3.5% for women. This favourable development was not accompanied by a similar decrease in the incidence of stroke. In men the total incidence (including recurrent strokes) and incidence of first stroke increased continuously. In women the total incidence showed virtually no change, whereas the incidence of first stroke decreased somewhat. These findings, in addition to an expected shift of age profile in the population towards more elderly people, should be considered in the planning of future health care resources.
为研究1974年至1981年期间斯德哥尔摩市中风的发病率和死亡率趋势，从瑞典死亡原因登记册和住院护理登记册中识别出所有40岁以上中风患者病例（n = 56566）。从民事登记系统获取了有关风险人群的信息。使用乘法模型来控制研究期间年龄分布的变化。在整个研究过程中，中风死亡率每年下降，男性平均下降2.3%，女性平均下降3.5%。这一有利发展并未伴随中风发病率的类似下降。在男性中，总发病率（包括复发性中风）和首次中风发病率持续上升。在女性中，总发病率几乎没有变化，而首次中风发病率有所下降。除了人群年龄结构向老年人的预期转变外，这些发现应在未来医疗资源规划中予以考虑。
